What are the prospects of a truce deal between Israel and Hezbollah?
Hassan Mneimneh, a political analyst with the Middle East Institute, says he is not optimistic about the prospects of a deal between Israel and Hezbollah given their entrenched positions in the war.
“Israel is clear about wanting freedom of action in Lebanon, which means bypassing Lebanese sovereignty … and Hezbollah has not considered that it would stop its war of support to Gaza,” he said.
“So in other words, the two main issues here have not been dealt with.”
The US and Israel are seeking other “byproducts” from the negotiations, said Mneimneh.
“What this process of negotiations can lead to is a decoupling between Gaza and Lebanon. Because even if Hezbollah does not concede to the American initiative, if the Lebanese government accepts it, it means a ceasefire in Lebanon irrespective of what happens in Gaza,” he said.
Additionally, in such a scenario, Hezbollah will be blamed for not carrying out a ceasefire, something that will increase anger from the Lebanese public, he said.
“There’s already quite a bit of movement against this war and, therefore, pressure on Hezbollah.”
Israel right to respond to ceasefire violations sticking point in negotiations: Israeli media
US envoy Amos Hochstein is expected to meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv to convey Lebanon’s response to the draft of the ceasefire proposal between Israel and Hezbollah.
According to Israel’s Channel 12, Israeli officials say the primary unresolved issue concerns Israel’s freedom of military action in the event of a Hezbollah violation of the agreement, a clause that Lebanon is hesitant to agree to because it could be interpreted as undermining its sovereignty.
Both sides have agreed to form an international committee to oversee the agreement’s implementation, according to Channel 12. The committee will comprise a mixed team of representatives from Western powers and Arab states.
