| Torpoleon said: @killer7 The problem with comparing the DS/3DS transition to the Switch/Switch 2 transition is that the 3DS was a much less successful system than the DS. As a result, it made sense for GF to prioritize the DS more than the 3DS. They jumped ship from 3DS to Switch pretty quickly because the Switch proved early on to be a huge success. They even seemed eager to jump off the GBA and get to the DS quickly (FRLG & Emerald launched less than a year apart and DP was originally slated for 2005). Obviously we don't know for sure what will happen with the Switch/Switch 2 transition, but while I feel like Switch 2 will sell less than Switch 1, I still see it being a raging success. As a result, I can't see there being any major titles for Switch released after 2025. Just some remakes, ports, remasters, etc. (and even that would probably end by the 10th anniversary of Switch). I don't expect Switch 1 to sell a lot after Switch 2 releases (maybe somewhere close to 5 million). |
The 3DS got first party games 2 years into the Switch's lifespan! Metroid: Samus Returns, Hey Pikmin, Ever Oasis, Pokémon... just to name a few. The 3DS sold around 5- 7 million units in the Switch's launch year (basically flat to the previous 2 years before). "Jumping ship pretty quickly" is not the act i would call that. The PS4 got Horizon, GT7 and GOW as cross gen titles and that was it with first party. The 3DS got more than 3 titles, and it where exclusives wich where not availible on the Switch. We do not know how sucessfull the Switch Up will be but it's not likley that it repeats its predecessor's sucess. If it flops, i see around 30 million minimum. If its sucessfull, 100 million minimum- 120 million maximum. No way its gonna repeat the Switch's sucess. Maybe we see a surprise but i don't think so. Yes the Switch was not backwards compatible and dirty cheap compared to the Switch, but the Lite will go down to ~150$ max. eventually and this pricegap won't be small as well.
