Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[shavenferret]

Russia's economy is heading toward a fate worse than recession, pro-Kremlin economists say

Long story short, Russia faces a significant risk of stagflation next year. This is when the unusual occurence of both inflation and a stagnating economy are present. Usually either one or the other is happening at a given time. And, it is difficult to fix, as the government can either stimulate the economy to fix the stagnation, or de-stimulate the economy to fix the inflation. But you can't do both, because the policies will conflict.

This is happening because ukraine's campaign against the oil refineries is bringing the price of oil up, which causes inflation. The lack of labor, and economic restrictions on trade that the rest of the world has imposed on russia is causing the stagnation. So, they are basically in a deep hole that they can't get out of at least until the war is finally over. Will public opinion sharply turn against putin once jobs become much more scarce? Will there be more public protests? Only time will tell.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-stagflation-recession-inflation-gdp-growth-ukraine-war-2024-11

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pro-government-economists-blame-central-bank-plunging-russia-into-stagflation-2024-11-13/