What to watch for people wanting to track the House: Dems have a *very* narrow path to 218 that’d entail
— Taniel (@Taniel) November 9, 2024
—staying ahead in all uncalled CDs where they now lead (starting with CA21, CA49, CA47, ME02, OH9)
—flipping GOP leads in 6 of 7 of: AKAL, AZ06, CO08, CA13, CA27, CA41, CA45
Not sure if a slight Democratic win or a 218R-217D house would be preferable haha.
In scenario #1, Jeffries gets to determine what is up for vote in the house.
In scenario #2, pure chaos with a GOP trifecta and a never-ending cycle of speaker fights and government funding crises until the mid-terms. Plus no Republican can be absent, die, or resign.
In an alternative universe where moderate Republicans still existed in the house you could see a sort of American version of a cross-party "Grand Coalition" happen, but the House is either Tea Party or MAGA now, with some swing district Republicans pretending not to be.
Edit: Also in either scenario Trump has much more incentive to do tariffs because nothing else can really get done and he has that power.
