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BFR 4 days ago
Betting markets nailed Trump's decisive win — and it's a good reminder they can be more accurate than polls
"In the weeks before Donald Trump's victory, polling showed the former president locked in a dead heat with Vice President Kamala Harris.
Prediction markets, though, told a different story.
Trump started showing a solid lead on betting markets like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Kalshi in mid-October, and those odds mostly rose in the weeks before Election Day.
The odds slightly narrowed in the few days before, but by the time the first major polls closed at 6 p.m. ET Tuesday evening, the markets showed around 60% odds for Trump."
https://www.businessinsider.com/betting-markets-polls-trump-election-win-polymarket-kalshi-2024-11
