2024 US Presidential Election

[zorg1000]

Soundwave said:

Obama would demolish an 82 year old Trump in an election, especially because I don't think anything can be done about inflation.

Prices of goods will still be high in 4 years, companies have no incentive to lower them whatsoever, the money folks in the government have no incentive really to want super low inflation either, the US has massive deficits which will continue under Trump and inflation *helps*. If you have large deficits and large debt, it makes it easier to pay off as a government (maybe not so if you're a consumer and have say credit card debt, but for a government that can control their currency, high inflation is actually preferable in a debt environment). 

The only way to lower prices is to have a massive recession and that obviously isn't good for an incumbent party either.

This basically mirrors what I said earlier but that’s not what people want to hear, they want a quick and easy answer that’s going to bring prices down to what they were 5 years ago and that’s simply not happening without a major recession like you mentioned.

The Fed succeeded in bringing inflation down without causing a recession and we have seen wages outpace inflation for the last year or so and interest rates are finally starting to come down. The problem is it was too little, too late for people to feel the effects of it going into this election.

If we continue to see ~2% inflation with ~4% wage growth and a couple more interest rate cuts then people will have their purchasing power slowly but surely return to where it was and the current prices of goods won’t feel as high anymore.

That’s one aspect that is infuriating about Trump winning, if he does go through with his crazy deportation & tariff plans then he is going to crash the economy and all the work of the Biden administration will be erased and on the other hand, if he doesn’t go through with these crazy plans then he is going to take credit for the work that happened under the Biden administration of getting inflation under control and in the next few years we will start to see the benefits of the Infrastructure, CHIPs & IRA bills and he will be able to take credit for them as well.