2024 US Presidential Election

[sc94597]

curl-6 said:

sc94597 said:

Gen Z is "more progressive" than previous generations. All of the data has shown us that a plurality to majority are more left-wing (especially on political-economy, but also culture) than previous generations when asked about issues that fall on the left-right spectrum. 

The issue is that there is also a large minority of Gen Z, especially males, who are socially-alienated and therefore more persuadable by far-right propaganda. This also explains things like the rise of mass-shootings, depression, and suicide in this group. 

But yes, the mainstream center and center-left do take Gen Z for granted, and that is why the majority are political independents even when they are further to the left than the Democratic Party (as most are.) 

@Bolded This margin doesn't tell us anything unless we are also including non-voting populations in this percentage for 2020 vs. 2024. This is especially the case given that Kamala seems to have lost this election by losing Biden voters, while Trump's absolute votes have remained pretty stable. 

https://www.wgbh.org/news/politics/2024-11-07/trump-gained-ground-with-young-voters-thanks-to-gender-gap-and-economy

"Youth voter turnout was down from 2020, when upwards of 55% of young people voted. This election was similar to 2016, with early estimates showing about 43% of youth having voted in this election."

The share of under-30s voting Trump was up from 2016 too, by 5 points:

https://nypost.com/2024/11/06/us-news/kamala-badly-fumbles-gen-z-vote-which-broke-big-for-trump/

But yeah for the most part I agree, a large portion of young men have grown up in an environment where it can feel like left side of the political spectrum is hostile towards them, which makes the right feel welcoming by comparison.

Let's say a young white dude votes for the first time this year. For much of his life, he's seen the left constantly carrying on about how men are garbage, masculinity is toxic, white people are evil, and straight white men especially are the devil incarnate. All that adds up. Then someone like Trump or Tate comes along and says hey, you're actually great, follow me and I'll make your life better.

It's not hard to see how so many end up leaning right.

A 5 point shift is probably statistically significant, but not so much that I'd consider it evidence that "Gen-Z is more conservative" or not necessarily "more progressive" than previous generations. This is especially the case given that many people seemed to have voted Trump not out of ideological alignment this round, but because of more global effects and the real politics surrounding them. He did win the popular vote this time and didn't in 2016, after all. 

I don't think young white people are voting slightly more conservatively in this round because of "woke politics". Especially when a lot of that has been purged from schools by the right over the last decade. To the point where not even the history of chattel slavery in North America is often taught. 

When I was talking about social alienation, I was talking more generally than the left-right spectrum. People are more atomized and socially alienated now than in the 20th century and even the first decade of the 21st century. This makes building meaningful trust-based connections harder and to maintain them even more-so. This then leaves one susceptible to radicalization. In 2004 if you started talking about "white replacement" you'd likely be talking about it in real life and get meaningful push-back by friends and family and other social connections, nipping the radicalization in the bud. In 2024 though, you would likely be on Twitter (hell the owner himself (re)tweets about it), 4-Chan, or Reddit, and with those quasi-anonymous relationships developing that ideology to the point where when you do talk about it in real-life you're already invested as a true-believer and it is much harder for your looser social connections to talk you out of it. 

And I am not talking about the right-leaners anyway. Young, white male Americans, always leaned right and likely always will for material reasons. Being a right-leaning liberal conservative or right-wing libertarian isn't a problem. 

The real question is why white men are moving to nationalist, traditionalist politics (which certainly aren't "lean right"), and why non-white men are also shifting a bit more right-wing. Social atomization and alienation in society is almost certainly the primary factor that has them funnel through "mano-sphere" and nationalist circles.