I probably should not have posted that graph until all votes have been counted.
California has currently counted 55% of the votes from what I can see.
9,7m total votes so far. Meaning it should add another 9m or so once the counting is complete?
I don't think the lack of blue votes will end up being as drastic once every vote has been counted.
Still curious to see where it ends up though.
EricHiggin said:
So in 4 years time, if Trump has clearly failed in his second term, when Reps blame Biden's economy, the Dems will just blame Trump. Waaaaaait a second... |
If one of the main complaints about his failure will be the economy, then sure.
Though I think the traditional Republican tax cuts for the ultra wealthy are one of the main factors, and differs from traditional Democratic spending bills in that the money from the tax cuts are not invested into the public, but into the pockets of billionaires who just sit on a large portion of it.
EricHiggin said:
Hopefully the final numbers in the end make more sense, because otherwise you can't help but wonder. The bellwethers haven't been wrong in a really long time, besides 2020. |
I went over it a bit at the top of this post, and I think IkePoR explained it well a few pages back.
There are many million more votes left to be counted. Around 9 million more will come in from California for example, which is currently at 55% counted.
The lines should allign much closer in the end. But there will be a drop in turnout for blue.
| EnricoPallazzo said: Some really interesting data coming. Gen Z voted for Trump in it's majority, something I would never expect to see. It seems they are not as liberal as progressive as some would say. Also it seems while trump votes are not that far from 2020 and 2016, there were 15 million votes less for Harris compared to Biden. Thats crazy. |
Numerically the shift doesn't seem dramatic from previous years. But that's because the right have been very efficient at getting into any online spaces occupied by young people for the past 15-20+ years.
Rather than a notable change in numbers, I think what most of us are surprised by is how extreme they appear to be due to the things they commonly and openly say in recent years.
I think a common expectation was that younger generations will be less bigoted than their grandparents. Technology and flow of information means fewer believe in religion, etc. Presumably it would result in more progressive leanings than there currently are.
However I think the major miscalculation decades ago was that people didn't anticipate how that flow of information can be used, or misused.
I think right wing grifters are able to relate to young people, especially males, in a more effective way than leftist grifters.
With Andrew Tate, Adin Ross, etc, they feel like they will gain something tangible, relevant to their problems.
Women, money, cars. Just take an alpha male course. Even though it's bullshit, those are at least 'rewards' to aspire towards.
What would be the equivalent leftist grift? Telling them to be a better person, and don't treat women and minorities poorly?
I think that messaging is a lot less effective than prospects of a Lamborghini and a ton of money in the bank. Especially when misogyny and bigotry is portrayed in a positive light, that makes them feel like better people as well.
Only one of these people in the Top 10 is left leaning.
And if he wasnt also very attractive, I'm not sure he would have made the list, considering everyone else on it.
This is one area where conservatives have played the game very very well. They appear to have an iron grip on the young male demographic, even if they are less religious.
| EnricoPallazzo said: 2020 was really.... strange to say the least. Of course saying something was off with 2020 elections is a neo-nazi conspiracy theory fuelled by russian disinformation campaign to destroy democracy and kill squirrels. Paraphrasing Chris Rock, "I am not saying these people are right in thinking this way, but I understand". |
I don't think anyone considers it to have a correlation to neo nazism.
But it is pretty stuid.
After every investigation, including by Trump's own DOJ, concluded there was 0 evidence of large scale voter fraud.
And because it was fueld by disinformation.
Theory by Trump: "Why weren't these Republicans let in to check the votes? Proof of voter fraud!"
Answer: The location in questionan had been designated an equal number of Democratic, Republican, and independant vote counters. This is by law. They are not allowed to add more Republicans to count them.
There were many quickly debunked conspiracy theories making the rounds.
The pandemic prompted higher tournout for obvious reasons in many countries around the globe, and more people chose to use the mail-in option, also for obvious reasons.
But in the US, some states chose to count mail-in ballots last, even though they can recieve them first. And long before election day.
This causes the scenario where one candidate is leading, and then "over night, all of a sudden, a bunch of votes come out of nowhere. Hmmm, very suspicious."
Democrats had always traditionally made use of mail-in to a higher degree than Republican voters.
And especially in 2020 when blue voters tried to avoid unmasked crowds, while MAGAs were adamant about not masking up and making a statement about it.
But it could also be the illuminati and deep state working with squirrels to create extra votes that no investigation could find.
That sounds just as likely.
And then they forgot to try it again in 2024 when they controlled everything.
