2024 US Presidential Election

[haxxiy]

Tober said:

Thanks for the backstory. It explains the ethnic sensitivities. But I cannot help but feel that in the current day and age using ethnicity to analyze voter choice could be misleading.

Let me give an example: It's commonly known that in high population areas like inner cities, people tend to be politically left leaning. This is a world wide phenomenon.

Let's say a certain ethnicity lives above average in high population centers. When trying to explain the voter choice by ethnicity, this could result in a conclusion that this ethnicity prefers left leaning politics. But meanwhile it could just be a result of living mostly in inner cities.

Party affiliation in the US was historically strongly linked to ethnicity. German-Americans and New Englanders voted for Republicans. Irish-Americans, Italians, Southerners, and Blacks voted for Democrats.

So it's not all about cities. Even today you can easily see the swathes of blue rural counties in the South that are Black-majority. Same (at least before Trump) with Hispanic counties in southern Texas.

The thing is that the Democrats have long taken their voters for granted. It seems that doesn't work forever.