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Important point. Michigan has changed its laws to enable the counting of mail in and early votes in advance. Because they have a democratic supermajority and therefore made a sensible decision.

What this means is that Michigan might be called relatively early. In which case, we should have a good idea of what will happen. Michigan will likely shift (or not shift) in the same way as PA and WI. If Michigan looks better for Kamala than for Biden in 2020 then she will most likely win.