2024 US Presidential Election

[JWeinCom]

the-pi-guy said:

YouGov polled the 7 core for the Financial Times.

—Harris is up 49/45 in Wisconsin, 48/45 in Michigan, 49/46 in Pennsylvania, & 48/47 in Nevada.
—Arizona is tied.
—Trump is up 49/48 in North Carolina, 48/47 in Georgia.

These are all VERY close to their last round in September.

— Taniel (@Taniel) November 1, 2024

Oct. 25-31	956	LV	YouGov	The Times of London, SAY24	Harris	51%	48%	Trump		Harris	+3
Oct. 25-31	956	LV	YouGov	The Times of London, SAY24	Harris	49%	46%	Trump	More	Harris	+3
Oct. 27-30	500	LV	Suffolk University	USA Today	Harris	49%	49%	Trump	More		Even
Oct. 27-30	1,400	LV	Marist College		Harris	50%	48%	Trump		Harris	+2
Oct. 26-30	1,204	LV	The Washington Post		Harris	48%	47%	Trump		Harris	+1
Oct. 24-28	2,186	LV	Quinnipiac University		Harris	47%	49%	Trump		Trump	+2
Oct. 24-28	2,186	LV	Quinnipiac University		Harris	46%	47%	Trump	More	Trump	+1
Oct. 24-28	1,057	LV	Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research	Fox News	Harris	49%	50%	Trump		Trump	+1
Oct. 24-28	1,057	LV	Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research	Fox News	Harris	48%	48%	Trump	More		Even
Oct. 23-28	819	LV	CNN/SSRS		Harris	48%	48%	Trump	More		Even
Oct. 22-28	1,273	LV	YouGov	CBS News	Harris	49%	49%	Trump			Even
Oct. 25-27	1,116	LV	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	The Telegraph	Harris	48%	48%	Trump	More		Even
Oct. 1-25	3,685	LV	CCES/YouGov		Harris	49%	48%	Trump		Harris	+1
Oct. 16-23	800	LV	University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov		Harris	48%	47%	Trump	More	Harris	+1
Oct. 21-22	860	LV	Emerson College	RealClearPennsylvania	Harris	49%	51%	Trump		Trump	+2
Oct. 20-22	1,586	LV	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	The Telegraph	Harris	48%	47%	Trump	More	Harris	+1
Oct. 16-20	812	LV	Morning Consult	Bloomberg	Harris	50%	48%	Trump		Harris	+2
Oct. 16-20	812	LV	Morning Consult	Bloomberg	Harris	50%	48%	Trump	More	Harris	+2
Oct. 9-20	583	LV	Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research		Harris	49%	50%	Trump		Trump	+1
Oct. 16-18	1,256	LV	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	The Telegraph	Harris	48%	48%	Trump	More		Even
Oct. 7-17	1,043	LV	YouGov	Claremont McKenna College Rose Institute of State and Local Government	Harris	50%	48%	Trump		Harris	+2
Oct. 6-15	1,395	LV	Morning Consult		Harris	49%	48%	Trump		Harris	+1
Sept. 30-Oct. 15	707	LV	The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government		Harris	49%	47%	Trump		Harris	+2
Oct. 7-10	857	LV	The New York Times/Siena College	The Philadelphia Inquirer	Harris	49%	45%	Trump	More	Harris	+4
Oct. 7-10	857	LV	The New York Times/Siena College	The Philadelphia Inquirer	Harris	50%	47%	Trump		Harris	+3
Oct. 2-9	800	LV	University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov		Harris	46%	45%	Trump	More	Harris	+1
Oct. 5-8	1,000	LV	Emerson College	Nexstar	Harris	49%	50%	Trump		Trump	+1
Oct. 3-7	1,412	LV	Quinnipiac University		Harris	49%	47%	Trump		Harris	+2
Oct. 3-7	1,412	LV	Quinnipiac University		Harris	49%	46%	Trump	More	Harris	+3
Oct. 2-7	1,037	LV	Hunt Research	University of Austin	Harris	47%	47%	Trump	More		Even
Oct. 2-7	1,037	LV	Hunt Research	University of Austin	Harris	47%	48%	Trump		Trump	+1

This is what the polls look like if you eliminate the shadier polls for PA. It's not a bad picture for Harris. If you assume the polls are accurate, this would indicate Kamala has a significantly better than 50% chance of winning there. The polls in MI and WI look much better.