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the-pi-guy said:
This seems like the kind of thing that should be ridiculously good for Democrats in Georgia. |
Yes... and no.
In terms of raw numbers, more black people are voting in early voting. However, white voters have increased their overall share of the early vote. Also, republicans are hugely up in terms of their share of the early vote.
The question is really what will happen on election day. If the white people, and particularly the republican ones, that are voting in early voting are people that used to vote on election day (or at least did in 2020), and black voters on election day rise in the same way they did in early voting. Well, then Kamala Harris is our next president.
The reverse is also possible though. Maybe the black voters who are voting in GA are people who had previously voted on election day. And the Republicans voting early are voters who didn't vote in 2020. In that case, Trump will win the state (although losing GA doesn't ensure an electoral victory for him the same way it does for Harris). It's also possible that while more republicans are voting early, there will also be new voters on election day.
Unfortunately it's hard to say what will happen, because our best point of comparison is 2020 which was a really weird year. If I had to venture a guess, I would say this is positive news for Democrats. Ridiculously good may be overstating it.
Damn I can't wait for this election to be over.
