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Chrkeller said:

FiveThirtyEight, an expert on measuring and rating pollster performance, has evaluated 24 polls by AtlasIntel, earning 2.7 stars for accuracy, indicating they are High Factual by MBFC’s criteria. They also conclude that their polling slightly favors the right with a score of -0.8, which equates to Least Biased overall in polling bias.

AtlasIntel has Trump taking all the swing states.

Meanwhile Marist which ranks 6th (2.9 stars) on FiveThirtyEight (versus AtlasIntel's 24th ranking) just released this poll. 

It's best to think of individual polls as data points, point-estimates and their aggregation (weighted by accuracy and recency) as the actual expected value.