2024 US Presidential Election

[JWeinCom]

RolStoppable said:

crissindahouse said:

Not a smart move from Biden. Maybe Kamala should talk more against Biden as well. Sure, same party but those who are undecided or who will only vote if something drastical happens could be more convinced to vote Kamala if she shows that she's a true alternative to both. And especially some of the easy "manipulated" who decide like a day before they vote what to vote for could love some honey around their mouth from Kamala if she says that potential Trump voters are also awesome people.

Biden didn't even make a move. If you watch it for yourself what he said in its entirety, it becomes clear that he didn't say "supporters" but supporter's" which is a tremendous difference. He wasn't talking about a lot of people, but the statement of a single person. But even if Biden had called Trump's supporters garbage, what difference would it make; in order to be offended by that, you'd have to be a Trump voter to begin with and you were already going to vote for Trump anyway.

Even before this Biden "incident", Harris has said that he doesn't view people who don't vote her as the enemy, but will give them a seat at the table. And let's not forget that it never came to Harris's nor Biden's minds to block hurricane aid from counties that are dominated by Republican voters, as opposed to Trump who had to be talked out of such ideas during his time in office.

Anyway, Trump will lose this election. Because if he was winning, his campaign wouldn't go in so hard on planting the seeds for the next big lie about a stolen election.

You are clearly right... but are voters intelligent enough to draw the logical conclusion? Maybe not. And there is a separate set of standards applied to republicans.

Chrkeller said:

According to a 2004 paper in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, the clear betting favorite in the month before the election has lost only twice, in 1916 and 1948.

Eh... 2016?

Cerebralbore101 said:

So I came here to say what my prediction for president was. But before I do, I'd just like to say that Twitter is not reality. Nobody on twitter knows anything about anything and if you keep your eyes glued to twitter to be informed you are lost. Also, isn't spam against the rules?

Anyway....

Trump will win. I don't want him to win. I want to live in a democracy. But Harris stands virtually no chance of getting to 270 without taking Pennsylvania. Right now Trump is up 0.4% in Pennsylvania. That might not seem like much, but Pennsylvania polls are always wrong by 2% to 3% in Trump's favor. Biden was supposed to win his home state by 3% to 4% according to polls. Instead he barely squeaked out a win in his home state.

I'm not saying a Harris win is impossible. But I give it 90% odds that Trump will win, and this will be the end of Democracy in this country.

Peace.

The thing is... that's just not the case. Pennsylvania's polling average was actually spot on in 2020. According to RCP, Biden was up 1.2% as of election day, and finished... winning by 1.2%.

Of course, you could flip the argument and say that since polls were accurate then, they are now, so Harris must be losing Pennsylvania. The problem with that is the polls were in some cases off, and not always in Biden's favor. Georgia had Trump up 1% and he lost by .3%. And that's just how polls are. They are not an exact science.

If you take the polls at face value, and I don't think you should seeing as some of the polls in the average are clearly garbage, then you get a .4% lead for Trump. I'm not sure how you could get from there to a 90% chance of a Trump win.