| Chrkeller said: According to a 2004 paper in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, the clear betting favorite in the month before the election has lost only twice, in 1916 and 1948. |
In 2016, they were even more confident than some forecasters, such as FiveThirtyEight, that Hillary Clinton would defeat Mr. Trump. Prediction markets can also amplify the opinions of speculators: In 2020, some investors were still betting that Mr. Trump would be the next president even after the race had been called for Mr. Biden.
Political betting markets still give Trump a >10% chance, both nationally and in several states where *results have been certified*. As I've said before, it's a bit alarming there are so many delusional people out there that the market equilibrium is this detached from reality. pic.twitter.com/SiKXccMvE8
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 26, 2020
And in the 2022 midterm elections, prediction markets foretold a “red wave” of Republican victories and priced a win in Pennsylvania by the Republican Senate candidate, Dr. Mehmet Oz, at 63 cents, despite polls showing that the race was a tossup. (Dr. Oz lost to John Fetterman by five percentage points.)
In early October, Elon Musk posted on X that Mr. Trump’s shares on Polymarket were priced above Ms. Harris’s. Afterward, the price of Trump shares on Polymarket began to climb, and they are outpacing Trump shares even on other prediction markets. But there’s no clear evidence yet to suggest that prediction markets can outperform other election forecasts or are inherently worse.
Betting Markets Favor Trump. But Their Record of Accuracy Is Mixed. - The New York Times
Funny that betting markets thought Hillary would win in 2016...
Reminder that Polymarket is being manipulated by one French dude who has single-handily placed a $30m+ bet on Trump which caused Musk to post about how amazing Trump's odds are on Polymarket and caused Trump's shares to increase. It's not hard to believe that the Polymarket manipulation has led to an increase for other betting platforms.
Hillay's Odds
On U.S. prediction market PredictIt, Clinton was trading at 81 cents before the debate, jumped as high as 87 cents during the sparring match, and settled at 83 cents after, said PredictIt spokeswoman Brandi Travis in an interview. That suggests an 83 percent likelihood she’ll win on Election Day.
Another U.S. market, PredictWise, on Thursday morning put the odds of a Clinton victory at 91 percent.
TIL:
The betting markets predicted -- up to the day Britain voted -- an 80 percent likelihood U.K. voters would opt to “remain” in the European Union. They did not.
Hillary Clinton Odds Around 80% - Business Insider - 1 Day Before Election
Hillary Clinton's probability of winning the presidency hovered around 80% on the British betting market Betfair on Monday,
Clinton's chances are slightly higher on PredictWise, another betting exchange, where she's favored to win at 88%, while Trump's chances are about 12%.
