| Cerebralbore101 said: So I came here to say what my prediction for president was. But before I do, I'd just like to say that Twitter is not reality. Nobody on twitter knows anything about anything and if you keep your eyes glued to twitter to be informed you are lost. Also, isn't spam against the rules? |
Just because polls were wrong in one direction before doesn't mean they'll always be wrong in that direction, they were also wrong in 2022 when they underestimated Democrats. They've been wrong a lot post-Dobbs in underestimating Democrats. Maybe they'll be wrong in favour of Trump but it is just as likely they've corrected for that after being wrong about Trump twice in a row, it is just as likely that they've overcorrected for it and are overestimating Trump's chances.
Even Nate Silver said that all pollsters are herding now, which makes them pretty useless, Lol. When you have polls all essentially saying the same thing, all basically saying it's a tossup, then you look at the MoE they've put on their polls and it's shit like +4 or +5 then it makes me throw my hands up in the air and ignore them completely because they're just putting themselves in a position where they'll be right no matter what. Some of these MoE's are ridiculous, some of these crosstabs are obvious nonsense.
Polls are herding and I think they're all terrified of being wrong once again so they're playing it extremely safe.
I'm very confident that Harris takes Michigan, as for Pennsylvania, I'm pretty confident there too, her ground operation has been far superior to Trump, she has Shapiro campaigning his ass off across the state, PA has a large voting block of Polish-Americans and Puerto Ricans who Trump has pissed off, he is currently cancelling planned events there and the fact that he is ranting on Twitter already about huge PA voting fraud is leading me to believe that his internal polling for PA is bad but I could be wrong, I've just felt confident about PA for a while.
Wisconsin and Arizona are the ones I'm most worried about.
