sc94597 said:
Systematic polling errors have no correlation between election cycles because the methodology changes to accommodate for the systematic sampling errors of the previous cycle. The fact that R-favorable polls like Rasmussen and Trafalgar are much closer to the standard polls this cycle, hints that the sampling bias resulting from undersampling Trump supporters has likely been resolved this cycle. The issue with doing that is that no single poll is very accurate in itself, but the aggregation of polls tend to be because biased sub-samples tend to balance each-other out. We're likely going to see a situation where the conservativeness (not in a political sense, in a statistical sense) of the pollsters this cycle (because no individual pollster wants their ratings reduced) will make any single pollster more accurate, but the aggregation of polls less accurate because they're likely underestimating the winning candidate, systematically. This could be Trump or Harris. Past cycles tell us nothing about where this systematic error resides, because of the bolded point at the start of this post. |
I don't think they've ever fixed polling errors. Trump has beat the polls the last two election cycles. I hope I'm wrong. But I've just lost hope for this country.
Edit: Also the below makes no sense. What are you saying?
We're likely going to see a situation where the conservativeness of the pollsters this cycle will (not?) make any single pollster more accurate, but the aggregation of polls less accurate because they're likely underestimating the winning candidate, systematically. This could be Trump or Harris. Past cycles tell us nothing about where this systematic error resides, because of the bolded point at the start of this post.
