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the-pi-guy said:
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I would be happy with this, but there are some strange things in the crosstabs. For instance, Kamala Harris winning males, and Trump with 24% of the Black vote. Kamala Harris actually performs worse with female voters than Biden did in 2020 which seems unlikely with Dobbs. Big grain of salt.
Something that is worth noting is that there are sets of figures given for self identified likely voters and what the pollsters consider likely voters. Harris has a lead of 6% nationwide if you don't weigh the results Kamala's lead jumps to 6% which would be almost an assured electoral victory.
People like to think of polls as objective data, but this is the subjective element. Their results are only useful insofar as it accurately predicts turnout. If more women show up to vote, or more rural voters, or more Puerto Ricans, then that completely changes the outcome.
Good to see a positive poll with such a large sample, but it still has the typical limitations.
Last edited by JWeinCom - 4 hours ago
