2024 US Presidential Election

[zorg1000]

Chrkeller said:

Isn't like core GOP voters suddenly would have gone Biden/Harris.  That is a gross overestimation.  

I meant more like Trump forms a MAGA Party and even if he only takes like 15-20% of the electorate with him, that’s more than enough to give Democrats the edge in tossup and lead red states.

Instead of essentially being 50/50 nationally, we could be looking at something like

Biden/Harris-48%
Haley-35%
Trump-15%
Other-2%

In this scenario, the 7 current swing states would all be safe blue and even lean red states like Texas, Florida, Ohio & Iowa would lean blue.

Even some safe red states where Trump is extremely popular could become tossup in this scenario. States like Kansas, Nebraska, Indiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, etc. were in the high 50s-mid 60s range for Trump, and mid 30-low 40s range for Biden in 2020. A scenario where Biden/Harris, Trump & Haley are all in the low-mid 30s wouldn’t be out of the question.

This could also affect Senate & House races, depending on how many weirdos ran as part of Trump’s MAGA Party rather than as Republicans.

Overall this could have been a 1992 type of election

Clinton-43% (370 EC)
Bush-37% (168 EC)
Perot-19%

Senate-57D, 43R

House-259D, 176R