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Ryuu96 said:
Imho, I may be wrong, but I think culture wars is a pointless political angle, I don't believe it's that effective, things like crying about stuff being "woke" and throwing a tantrum at the sight of a trans-person. What is effective is what has always been effective which is the economy, also immigration is sadly effective for hate because immigration is linked to the economy too, immigrants will be blamed why you can't get a job, why you can't get a house, why you can't afford anything, why hospitals are crumbling, etc. But how can you link all this stuff to whether someone has a dick or not in their pants? Whether someone identifies as a man or woman? I don't believe most people give a single fuck about this stuff and here in UK it's what the Tories tried and I feel like people grew sick of it very quickly. Maybe I'm wrong for America but all these ads say is "This person is doing something I don't like in their own privacy!" and it's like "Okay, so how do I benefit or how does this hurt me?" and to that question, the answer is "It doesn't affect you at all" Lets be honest, a lot of people are selfish but in this case, being selfish helps because then they would respond with "Okay, shut up, tell me how you're going to improve my life" and the answer to that question isn't "Hate trans people" cause how on Earth could it be? How can you say an extremely small minority of people are overloading hospitals? Are taking your jobs? Are the reason there's no available houses? Are the reason that you can't afford groceries? Etc...You can't...Not in any shred of logical explanation. Now the economy, your bills, the housing market, your own bodily autonomy, those things actually benefit the voter, not what someone gets up to in their private lives and Tbh, I think this culture war shit does largely come from the internet echo chamber, it's a bit like in gaming, when people start pissing their pants about a character having pronouns, the internet makes it seem like a big deal but in reality, the majority of gamers not permanently glued to their PC screens do not give a fuck about it, at least I like to believe that. The Trump campaign team comes across like it is ran by edge-lord permanently online losers who have never taken a step out in the real world and actually spoken to real people, Lol. Anyway, I think independent women break in large numbers for Harris too and they're an extremely reliable voting block, I also think she'll actually manage to get a decent amount of Republican women too, I think like in 2022, people are once again underestimating women in a Post-Dobbs environment. Ever since 2022 it has felt to me like American women are PISSED and rightfully so. Meanwhile Trump is trying to court the manosphere dude-bros which could be effective...If they actually show up to vote, which is unlikely. |
I get that. There is at least a facially plausible link between immigration and the economy, which is not really applicable when it comes to trans people.
That said, I think you are giving voters too much credit at being strictly logical. I think there are a lot of people who kind of just vote on, for lack of a better term "vibe". Basically all of those people saying they vote for Trump because he "tells it like it is". They are not praising him for his candor, because I don't think they actually believe he's an honest person. They mean that he is willing to show the same kinds of prejudices he does.
And a bit part of their audience is religious fundamentalists, who are oddly obsessed with genitals. Jesus spent far more time railing on the rich then talking about gays (I believe they get one mention in the old testament and Jesus says nothing), but somehow they have been convinced that being gay or trans is somehow pissing god off and like making hurricanes and shit.
Also, there is the other side of the equation. It's not as though trans people are universally accepted by democrats. Democrats are a more diverse coalition that is united largely by economics and opposition to white Christian nationalists. But, a lot of those demographics are really not down with the lgbtq community, particularly the t part. Their are a lot of liberals, take Bill Maher for example, who are liberals in most facets but still buy into the anti-woke hysteria to some extent or another. Will it be important enough to ignore that the republican candidate is literally a fascist? Common sense would say no, but we'll see.
RolStoppable said:
If we've learned anything about Republican politicians in the last ten years, it's that they want to get in power for power's sake. Hence why they've aligned themselves behind Trump no matter how stupid it would make them look like. So if they are now turning against Trump, this late in the game right before an election, it's not because they've suddenly grown a spine. The rats-fleeing-the-ship theory is correct, because Trump is so off the mark on (perceived) conservative values by now - fiscal responsibility, economy, party of law and order, defense of the constitution - that continued backing of this loser will likely result in political death for his supporters; meaning their chances for their own re-election whenever it's coming up will drastically decrease. If Republicans lose this election too, then Trump's record will be one of a fluky win in 2016, followed by disappointments in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024. Trump's mental decay that we can already witness today will make him completely unelectable in 2028, so this is his final run for office; nevermind that all the court cases against him will proceed after an election loss in 2024, new ones will be opened and he would be unelectable in 2028 even if still in great mental condition. Indeed, this is the time for the rats to leave the ship because they heard Liz Cheney's words. Paraphrased, "There will come a time when Donald Trump is gone, but the dishonor you did to this country won't be." |
I would be inclined to say they are changing their tune because they feel it will be beneficial to them politically. They may also believe it's the right thing to do, but that's secondary. If that's the case, the question is whether or not their right about the sinking ship. If they are politicians from the swing states, they probably have a better idea than we do. They're going to feel the water on their heels first.
