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SanAndreasX said:
the-pi-guy said:

I think Wisconsin will be fine. 

Wisconsin is a fairly blue state, that's heavily gerrymandered.  

While that may be true, gerrymandering only applies to the House in federal elections. Senators are elected by direct popular vote in every state, and the President is elected by a winner takes all process in every state except Nebraska and Maine. Hovde is a truly awful person who has been polling far too close to Baldwin for comfort.

I'm aware. I'm pretty confident that Baldwin will win. 

She won by 11 points in 2018 and 5.5 points in 2012. She vastly outperformed Tony Evers in 2018, and 2022 had Evers at +3.5.

I'm starting to really feel like a lot of these polls are closer than they probably should be.