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My understanding is that Nevada is really hard to guess this year as well due to how party registration changed in that state which has meant there's a massive amount of independents now and while it's *mostly* safe to say "Democrat will vote Democrat and Republican will vote Republican (with exceptions)" nobody has a clue how independents are voting. Ralston who is considered great with Nevada even said that Nevada this year will be really hard to guess, he said he has "no idea" on what way it's going to go due to independents.
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Biennial PSA: early voting data 1) can't tell us what the final electorate will look like, 2) can't be fairly compared w/ '20 b/c patterns are just way different post-COVID and 3) can't tell us who voters are voting for. Resist the temptation to draw inferences at all costs.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 4, 2024
