Mnementh said:
If Antarctica thaws then we are in deep shit. The South Pole has some geographic quirks that keep it extra cool. So it will not thaw with just 2° warming, it needs more. |
We're not there yet, but could get closer when the permafrost melts.
A temperate lowland rainforest environment existed at a palaeolatitude of about 82° S during the Turonian–Santonian age (92 to 83 million years ago). A climate model simulation shows that the reconstructed temperate climate at this high latitude requires a combination of both atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of 1,120–1,680 parts per million by volume and a vegetated land surface without major Antarctic glaciation, highlighting the important cooling effect exerted by ice albedo under high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
During the Cretaceous Hot Greenhouse 92 million years ago, global surface temperatures rose to around 85 degrees Fahrenheit (29 celcius)
Current global temperature is 59F / 15c.
The current global average concentration of carbon dioxide (CO 2) in the atmosphere is 421 ppm (0.04%) as of May 2022. This is an increase of 50% since the start of the Industrial Revolution, up from 280 ppm during the 10,000 years prior to the mid-18th century.
We're basically pumping all stored carbon into the atmosphere by digging up coal and oil. But a green Antarctica is still a long long way off.
But yes we'll be way past deep shit if global temperature rises 14 degrees!
(Not gonna happen, even if we do nothing, estimates show 800ppm is the max we'll get to)
Mnementh said:
Sorry, earth will not easily turn into venus. Venus had no tectonic plates develop, something which is important in earths carbon cycle, this is a major COâ‚‚ sink. Plate tectonics have lead to the most extreme ice age, where earth completely froze over to the equator, about 800 million years ago. On venus and earth both COâ‚‚ is released by volcanic activity from the planets inside. But while on earth with waethering and plate tectonics a system exists to put carbon back into the earth, no similar process exists on venus. So more and more COâ‚‚ is released there and never reduced. This is the reason Venus got so hot. Also as the gas is accumulating the atmosphere got thicker (as nothing is removed), so it has much, much more pressure than the earths atmosphere. |
Never said it would be easy, neither did Stephan Hawking in the livescience article. Yet as for things Earth can recover from, nuclear winter is easy.
Earth might have the same fate as Venus, but on a Billion year time scale (as the sun gets hotter)
As puny humans we can make it a lot more uncomfortable for ourselves.