2024 US Presidential Election

[haxxiy]

Chrkeller said:

Of course betting firms aren't 100% right, but they are right more than they are wrong.

All that aside, anybody who is confident in harris, go make some money.  

Betting odds are less accurate than most top-rated pollsters, on average.

The former are initially set by polling data and are, by definition, only as accurate as the groups making the bets. Contrary to the common idea of 'wisdom of the crowd,' they seem more likely to add new sources of bias than remove them. See this study for more details.

Of course, if you want to go down that route, you might as well be using Lichtman's keys or halloween mask sales, which are at least an order of magnitude more precise in predicting results (in terms of standard deviation).