Sony PS3 catching up to Wii in Japanese sales

[Alby_da_Wolf]

RolStoppable said:

Alby_da_Wolf said:

sc94597 said:

So when nintendo's new console is released, the wii will stop selling? Also I doubt the ps3 will last 10 years.

 

You are both right and wrong, depending on the way it should last so long. Being an "hardcore console" in no way PS3 could last 10 years as top Sony model, but it could last 5 to 7 years as top, then, after price reductions and PS4's release, last another 3 years as low end, like PS2 is doing. In 5 years, when PS3 will be 7, its components should cost really little money, like do now PS2's ones.

Obviously the same could easily happen to Wii when Wii2 comes, but as for MS I really don't know, this time they killed their old console little after the new one was born, what they want to do in the future isn't clear, we have only one precedent, it's difficult to draw a pattern, a behaviour, although in the markets where MS is strong, it always tries to kill its old products to make room for the new ones.

We have enough precedents to draw a pattern. Winning systems have an extended lifecycle, losing systems don't. The one exception is the Sega Genesis/Megadrive which was the most successful losing system and achieved 40 % marketshare, something that none of the losing systems this generation will come close to.

Based on that we can conclude that the Wii will live on for several years after a successor is launched, while the 360 and PS3 both will die off quickly after a successor is launched.

In line of principle you're right and I am sure that Wii will remain successful for a very long time, but we still don't know if PS3 and XB360 will be considered a flop or not in 5 years. Right now PS3 is doing worse than Wii, but is not doing so bad in absolute numbers, particularly as now it's Summer, and a hot one, and only Wii, with its social potential, seems immune to its effects on sales. Next Autumn and Winter we'll have a more significant picture of Wii's competitors, but even now we know Sony doesn't give up easily.