| Ryuu96 said: And I hate to say it but I'm about 99% sure that Ukraine won't be joining NATO for a minimum of 10 years because there's too many cowards in the West. How long does Ukraine have to wait for the West to grow some balls? Sadly, a pessimistic side of me thinks that Ukraine may not even join NATO in my lifetime, NATO can talk shit about Ukraine "will join NATO" all they like, when Ukraine has already been waiting for 16 years. All it takes is one country to veto, if it's not Orban it will be Scholz, if it's not Scholz it'll be Fico, if it's not Fico it will be Harris (or Trump). France and Germany are trending rightward towards parties that love Russia, as will UK in about 4-5 years from now if Labour doesn't pull off a miracle. You may say that Orban, Scholz, Biden/Harris/Trump, Fico will be gone soon, but it's almost equally as likely that someone replaces them with their exact same stances. For Ukraine to join NATO the war is going to have to finish (will be years), then, if Ukraine has reclaimed its territory, great, but if Ukraine has lost territory then to join NATO they'd have to officially surrender it so that Ukraine isn't currently in conflict, then they'd probably need a period of peace, then we'd need a number of politicians with completely different mindsets to takeover in the West and if Russia is still lobbing missiles across the border at Ukraine or still do minor border raids then they sure as shit aren't joining NATO. Which is why Ukraine joining was never the issue, because Ukraine was nowhere near joining NATO because as long as Russia had Crimea and sent cause a little regional conflict in the Donbas, NATO was never going to allow Ukraine in. Literally all Russia needs to do is lob a missile across the border at Ukraine every month or so and NATO wouldn't go anywhere near letting Ukraine in. It was always that simple to scare off the likes of America/Germany. But I've refrained from saying this because it's one of Ukraine's aspirations and I want to support them but I don't believe it's happening within the next 10 years at a minimum, Ukraine probably thinks it's not happening at least for a few years though. So they're not saying "PUT US IN NATO TOMORROW" but at least give them assurances they will be in NATO rather than vague, useless words that they've said for the past 16 years. If they can't have those assurances then they'd have to find ways where UKRAINE can assurance its own defence, one of those ways is sadly, nukes. Something Trump pretends to care about, so Zelenskyy is playing to that. |
I think that the horrors of this war and the cynicism it produces are getting to you, Ryu. It may not be great, but things probably aren't going to be that bad either. I'm thinking that things will be more of the middle of the road and that Ukraine will probably have Nato membership within 6 years.
NATO nations will want to expand the organization, especially since it would be a high-value nation that won't betray them (somewhat) like say Hungary has been doing. Ukraine will be loyal to the group. Again, they want to expand the nation, especially to nations vulnerable to russia. Ukraine would be the most obvious example of that.
And these considerations of a nuke program by ukraine is possibly meant to bring about this decision sooner. After the war, Ukraine will have to rebuild for a while and that will be very costly. I can see them getting nukes again after 10 years or so, but it won't be as quick as they want.
Don't worry, this war will be over next year and Ukraine will become a good place to live again.
Last edited by shavenferret - on 18 October 2024
