Who will succeed Sinwar?
Here are some names that could replace Sinwar:
- Khaled Meshaal – Led Hamas’s political office from 1996 to 2017.
- Khalil Hayya – Appointed deputy of Hamas’s political bureau in August this year.
- Mousa Abu Marzouk – Founding member of Hamas and its first chairman from 1992 to 1996.
- Muhammad Ismail Darwish – Chairman of the Hamas Shura Council since October 2023.
- Mohammed Sinwar – Leader of the military wing of Hamas and Yahya’s brother.
In terms of who will succeed Sinwar, the question is whether Hamas will choose someone from outside or inside Gaza, Hassan Barari, professor of international affairs at Qatar University, has told Al Jazeera.
Leaders in Gaza face difficulties in making decisions due to logistical and communication reasons, he said.
“I would assume that most likely they would pick one from the outside, maybe Khalil Hayya, as the deputy, and the guy who is involved in all negotiations,” Barari said, adding that it’s a priority for Hamas to have a leader so as to claim that their organisation has survived despite the numerous assassinations over the years.
Hamas likely to have a bifurcation or a hydra approach to leadership
Beverly Milton-Edwards of the Middle East Council on Foreign Affairs says after the assassination of Haniyeh in Iran, it appeared in public that Sinwar was taking over the whole of the movement, including the armed wing as well as the political bureau.
“But at the same time, the leadership met internally and reached [an agreement] to form a decision-making that there would be a parallel leadership, which included [deputy leader] Khalil al-Haya, who knows, grew up with and was close to Sinwar,” she added.
The analyst said it is likely that the movement will have two leaders in the future and has many senior figures among the prisoners in addition to other locations.
She also said what is happening is “a bifurcation or a hydra approach” to leadership, adding that “the leadership or the knowledge about leadership” is likely to become more secret.
Beverly Milton-Edwards reminded that similar secrecy was carried out when Hamas was founded after the first Intifada – the mass demonstrations by Palestinians that started in 1987.
Sinwar exposed Israeli propaganda: Palestinian politician
Mustafa Barghouti, secretary-general of the Palestinian National Initiative, says the Israeli prime minister “wanted an image of victory” but Sinwar, at the end of his life, “gave the world an image of Netanyahu’s failure” instead.
“All the lies [Israel] told about Sinwar were exposed – that he was hiding behind civilians, taking them as human shields, proved to be a lie. The lie that he was hiding behind Israeli captives was also proven to be a lie, and the claim that he was running away and hiding in tunnels was exposed,” Barghouti told Al Jazeera, noting that Sinwar was in Rafah fighting the Israeli army.
“Sinwar revealed how wrong the Israeli propaganda was not only about him, but in general of the situation,” he said.
Analysts say a year of war has changed Israel
After killing more than 42,000 Palestinians in little more than 12 months of fighting in Gaza, many of the reasons Israel stated for starting the conflict remain unfulfilled, analysts tell Al Jazeera.
Its internal security seems even more precarious than when it started fighting on October 7, the day of a Hamas-led attack on southern Israel during which 1,139 people died and about 250 were taken captive.
Israel claimed on Thursday that it had killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who is accused of planning the October 7 attack – a man it had long said was the root of all evil. But instead of talking about a ceasefire and negotiating for the captives’ return, Israel seemed to become even more belligerent.
Analysts say that a year of conflict has strengthened the far right and emboldened an increasingly messianic leader.
הרמטכ״ל: ״לא נעצור עד שנתפוס את כל המחבלים שהיו מעורבים ב-7/10 ונשיב את כל החטופים הביתה״ pic.twitter.com/40aG1MnUqF
— צבא ההגנה לישראל (@idfonline) October 17, 2024
Translation: The chief of staff: “We will not stop until we catch all the terrorists who were involved in 7/10 and return all the abductees home.”
For many Israelis, Tel Aviv-based analyst Ori Goldberg said, through the last 12 months, war had become part of Israel’s existence.
“People believe that war is necessary,” he said. “We believe it with a passion, even if we no longer know why or to what purpose. We just know that, whatever the problem, war is the solution.”
Meanwhile, 12 months of bloody attacks on Gaza and, more recently, Lebanon have caused major deeper societal changes in Israel, exacerbating long-held divisions and creating chasms in a society that Israeli academics have suggested may be on the point of collapse.
