Mostly anecdotal, but my partner lives in a Pennsylvanian county where Trump won 60.8% of the vote in 2020, and this time around there is a lot more explicit enthusiasm for Democrats than there was then. In his small rural township, that is 97% white, non-hispanic and skews older, there are a decent number of Harris-Walz signs compared to Biden-Harris ones in the last election. This is probably more a measure of enthusiasm (than a substantial change in local vote-shares) but even out there Democrats are much more enthusiastic than in the last presidential election, it feels like. For reference, non-Trump Republicans, tend to get 65-70% of the vote in this county, so there already was some single-digit vote-splitting in 2020.
In the neighboring county where I live (which includes Pittsburgh) things seem to be much more like in the last election. Inner-suburbs of Pittsburgh skew Democratic, outer-suburbs and exurbs skew Republican. But the city itself is very active politically compared to the last election.
Even with the Palestinian-Israel issue, Democrats and left-wing Independents (like myself) feel much more unified than in 2020. There were a lot of domestic issues splitting us in 2020 that aren't as much in 2024, and the Palestinian-Israel issue is very abstract for most Americans, although that could change if the war escalates further before the election and the U.S gets more explicitly involved. I personally don't like that Biden isn't standing up to the escalation coming from Israel's direction, which only can happen because the U.S supports it unconditionally, but it's pretty obvious Trump would accelerate the pace of that escalation by an order of magnitude, and domestic issues still do matter.
So yeah, if Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters turn out, which it seems like they will, I think they're going to take Pennsylvania and probably the election.
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