| Chrkeller said: Weak video. He claims GoP polls are skewing data but in his own video Quinn (non partisan) has trump leading in swing states. Which is why betting firms have Trump with the advantage. Biggest reason to stay optimistic is the influx of new registered voters that likely are not accurately represented in the polls. Granted I still think there is plenty if reason to be concerned. |
If the race is going to be decided by less than 3% in swing states, which seems likely, then we would expect some polls to show Donald Trump with a lead. In the set of polls from Quinnipiac I believe they show Harris at +2 in PA and -2 in WI, which is a strange result if taken at face value. But if you consider margin of error, those results are consistent. In theory, other polls should balance things out to correct whichever of those two numbers is off.
But if there is indeed a flood of low quality polls, which seems to be the case as some polls Show Donald Trump winning black voters 60-40, then the overall average would be artificially skewed towards Trump. I would say it's more likely that betters are basing their decision off the aggregate. If they are basing it off of one particular poll, that is simply a misunderstanding on their part of how polls work.
As for the reason to stay optimistic, this may be nitpicky, but it's not just newly registered voters, but also voters who didn't vote in the last election. Most polls considerer "likely voters" as voters who voted in the last election. If for instance there were people who were registered to vote but did not last year, but now will because they feel strongly about a certain issue... say abortion, then they would also be not counted.
I'm still very concerned but I'm not sure my concern is based on rationality. Rationally, I think we're going to see an inverse of 2016. In 2016, the polls were off because Trump drove a lot of people that typically do not vote to the polls. They were much closer in 2020, and by now, I think there's a better chance that Harris will be driving non-habitual voters to the polls. Probably not to the same extent, but I do think she is being underestimated.
Last edited by JWeinCom - 4 days ago
