2024 US Presidential Election

[shavenferret]

RolStoppable said:

JWeinCom said:

Problem is that she's juuuuuuuust at the bare minimum of what she'd need to win. Hillary won by I believe about 2% in the popular vote but somehow lost because the system is fucked. So, these results show Kamala winning by juuuuuust enough, and of course polls could be wrong.

The good news though is I think it's unlikely that Trump's support is underestimated in these polls. In 2016, Trump had a little over 46% of the vote. In 2020 a little under that. So, unless Trump has somehow gained a lot of support, he doesn't have  much room for improvement. And... I really just don't see Trump improving over four years ago. If anything, we would expect the opposite considering who is entering and leaving the voting pool. The undecideds should, at worse, break even, and more likely will go more for Harris.

The problem you are talking about concerns the fundamentals of your dumb voting system, but the actual takeaway from the polling average should be that Harris keeps steadily improving. While early voting has already started in some states, there's still a whole month left until election day. By that time the average lead should be above 4.0%, perhaps even closer to 5.0% because Trump's mental state gets more unstable by the week.

on what Rol said, it should be realized that Trump is the most recognizable and obvious case of a grandiose narcissist in our time.  They probably have put his picture in some of the abnormal psych textbooks for that disorder.  Also, losing for them is more than a bad thing, it defines them as a bad person and so they don't just go on with their lives, they lose it and can become erratic.