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Hassan Nasrallah, a larger-than-life figure
Hassan Nasrallah is a larger-than-life figure when it comes to the politics in the Middle East. He is the figurehead, Iran’s linchpin, if you will. He really created Hezbollah into the organised fighting, disciplined force that it is today.
He came to power, to the helm of the group, 32 years ago when the former secretary-general was assassinated by Israel. I think that is an interesting point, also to show you that these groups don’t just disappear with the assassination of senior figureheads.
He hasn’t appeared in public for years due to security concerns. In Lebanon, everyone stops to listen to him, whether they like him or not.
And over the years, Hezbollah has in Lebanon lost [some of] its support from the people, especially when they started fighting in Syria. Many Lebanese thought, “This is no longer our fight. You are representing Iran, you are not representing us”.
There was also a lot of anger among parts of the Lebanese society when Hezbollah entered in support of the Palestinians of Gaza on October 8. Many Lebanese I’ve been speaking to will tell you, ‘This is not our fight’, as much as they support the Palestinian cause, because Lebanon has its own problems.
Certainly we cannot underestimate the turning point in the Middle East, in the geopolitical situation, when it comes to this [claimed] assassination by Israel. It is a massive blow.
Worry among Hezbollah members over fate of group leader
This is a man who has a lot of support, especially among his Shia constituency in Lebanon. They see him as a father figure, a religious leader and as a man who has improved their standing in Lebanon.
At the same time, Hezbollah is a non-state actor that is better armed than the Lebanese state and this has earned it enemies in the country. The last speech Nasrallah gave was prerecorded and he knew he was being hunted down.
If the news of his death is true, this will be a political earthquake in Lebanon.
‘Not justifiable attacking densely populated areas – but world does nothing’
Commenting on the Israeli claims of killing Nasrallah, military and security analyst Elijah Magnier has told Al Jazeera that the focus should be “on the several buildings that all disappeared under the ground, with all their inhabitants,” as a result of the Israeli air attack on Friday.
“It’s absolutely considered a war crime and a crime against humanity – and it’s not in any way considered a collateral damage,” he told Al Jazeera.
“The percentage of the people who are killed in such a populated and dense area – it’s not justifiable,” Magnier said.
He added, however, that is not surprising that the focus is going on Nasrallah, rather than “the civilians who perished because of the Israeli strike” given the Israeli military actions against Palestinians.
“We have seen Israel and the Americans covering it, committing it all the war crimes, crimes against humanity and intent of genocide under our watchful eyes and the international community’s eyes in Gaza and the West Bank – and the world did nothing,” Magnier said.
Hezbollah’s structure and the challenges it faces
Hassan Nasrallah is not the person who actually directs military operations. He signs off on them.
Hezbollah is made up of at least three parts. There is a military wing, a political wing – they have members of parliament, they are part and parcel of Lebanese political society – and a charitable wing, running schools and hospitals.
If Nasrallah has indeed been killed, whoever replaces him will take on the mantle of those three things.
But last week, there have been assassinations of key military leaders. That is going to be more crippling to the organisation as these people have the military and battlefield experience. Replacing them will be a bigger challenge, particularly in the midst of this intense escalation.
