Israel trying to push Hezbollah to cave in with air campaign
There hasn’t been any mass evacuation from Sidon yet. Many of those who were displaced from areas closer to the border have since moved here. That includes Lebanese and Syrians. Remember, this country is host to a large Syrian population and they have nowhere to go.
Israel’s strategy since the launch of its wide-scale air campaign is to improve its negotiating position, to maximise its leverage. It is hoping it can put pressure on Hezbollah so that the group will cave in to its demands.
Israel’s demands are for Hezbollah to hold fire so that tens of thousands of Israelis can return to their homes in northern Israel. We also understand that Israel wants a new security arrangement along the border.
But Hezbollah is an organisation that does not negotiate under fire.
Hezbollah treading carefully and choosing de-escalation
Hezbollah has still not responded to this shock and awe campaign. It has still not used its strategic assets.
Yesterday, it released a video showing its long-range missiles, telling Israel: “We can escalate, but we are choosing to de-escalate at the moment.” Hezbollah’s missiles can hit population centres in Israel.
Hezbollah is still treading carefully. What we understand from Lebanese government sources is the proposal put forward by the US and France is acceptable because it mentions a Gaza ceasefire.
It is also acceptable because it mentions the full implementation of UN Resolution 1701. But officials and our sources are saying that they do not believe Israel is serious about reaching any sort of settlement.
Israeli military ‘not yet ready’ for ground invasion of Lebanon
While Israel says it is preparing for a ground invasion of Lebanon, it is not quite ready to go in, according to Andreas Krieg, a professor at King’s College London.
“I don’t think this incursion is imminent,” Krieg told Al Jazeera. “I don’t think the Israeli military is ready to open a third front on the ground.
“A war on the ground against Hezbollah, with infantry, with combined arms, will be extremely difficult. I think the Israeli military is quite overstretched. It’s a different ball game – fighting Hezbollah on the ground versus pounding them from the air.”
The Israeli military’s air campaign in Lebanon, meanwhile, is aimed at pushing Hezbollah to “come to the negotiating table” and consider withdrawing its fighters north of the Litani River, Krieg said.
However, he believes Hezbollah is unlikely to make such concessions “as long as Israel is not making any concessions on the Gaza front”.
