Israel, Lebanon expected to make imminent decision on ceasefire call
Lebanon and Israel are expected to decide “within hours” whether to back a joint call for a ceasefire in Lebanon, AFP news agency reports quoting an anonymous US official.
Earlier, we reported that Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia issued the call with the US, Canada, Australia, Japan and several EU countries for a 21-day “temporary ceasefire” in Lebanon.
The joint call, which was issued following an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, is “an important breakthrough” to avoid a wider conflict, a second US official told AFP.
What is the ‘Blue Line’ between Israel and Lebanon?
A new proposal calling for a 21-day “temporary ceasefire” between Israel and Hezbollah refers to fighting along the Blue Line between Israel and Lebanon.
But what is the Blue Line and why does it matter?
- The Blue Line is the de facto border demarcating disputed areas separating Israel, Lebanon, and the occupied Golan Heights.
- It was drawn by the UN in May 2000, after Israel withdrew from areas of southern Lebanon it began invading in 1978.
- Since then, the line has been monitored by UN peacekeepers, known as UNIFIL, and UN technical observers, known as UNTSO.
- Tensions have remained along the line, particularly in the divided village of Ghajar, the Shebaa Farms and the Kfarchouba Hills – all situated in a small area along the border between Lebanon and Syria’s Golan Heights, which was occupied by Israel in 1967.
- In 2006, the July war between Israel and Hezbollah ended with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which demanded that Hezbollah and Israeli troops show “full respect” for the Blue Line.
‘Huge disconnect’ between international community and Israel, Hezbollah
While the 21-day ceasefire plan offers an off-road to end the fighting in Lebanon, neither Israel nor Hezbollah “seem to have much of an incentive to sign on”, according to William Lawrence, professor of political science and international relations at American University.
“One of the odd things about this conflict since October is that the whole world wants a ceasefire that the belligerents don’t,” Lawrence, a former US diplomat, told Al Jazeera.
“And it’s increasingly clear that Israel operates almost entirely without consulting the US government … even though the US government retroactively greenlights just about everything Israel does. There’s a huge disconnect between the international community, including the US, and the parties.”
To secure a ceasefire, “it’s going to take a lot more pressure from the Americans”, said Lawrence.
“Once there’s enough pressure on Israel to get something together, which is not where we are right now, pressure can be put on Lebanon in the case of Hezbollah and pressure can be put on Hamas through Egypt and Qatar.”
Once there is a ceasefire in Gaza, Hezbollah and the Houthis can, and have repeatedly said they will, stand down. No pressure needed on Lebanon, and since Hamas already accepted, pressure needs to be on Israel. It is clear by now Hamas will not sign on to a temporary ceasefire that leaves the IDF in Gaza. It is also clear by now Netanyahu will no end any war as long as he keeps US' unconditional support.
‘Cynicism’ likely over statement on Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire
Speaking to people, they are not calling this a ceasefire proposal. It’s a statement about a ceasefire proposal. If we look at who has issued this joint statement, it’s the United States, Australia, Canada, European Union, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
No Israel. No Hezbollah. No Lebanese government.
This won’t come as a surprise. They’re expecting some pressure to get a ceasefire proposal. But there is no trust here in Lebanon that the Americans or indeed anyone can actually rein in Israel.
They always point to the US military assistance that Israel gets – $3.5bn a year. Since October 8, emergency appropriations of about $21bn. That level of US support for Israel doesn’t make the US an honest broker.
There is going to be a lot of cynicism about this particular ceasefire statement.
And it’s going to come as a bit of a surprise to Hezbollah because its position since October 8 has been crystal clear. End the war in Gaza and we will return to where we were on October 6, those settlers in the north of Israel can go back to their homes, and our people can come back to their homes in the south of Lebanon.
