drkohler said:
The brutal fact is: These captives are dead. They are the only leverage Hezbolla has against Israel. There is no way Hezbollah will let these hostages escape. |
Hamas and PIJ have the hostages in Gaza, some are still alive. It is indeed the only leverage Hamas has against Israel.
Hezbollah's leverage is the continued displacement of some 80,000 Israelis that have been staying in hotels since the tit for tat exchange between Israel and Hezbollah began. Hezbollah has plenty rockets to keep threatening the safety of Northern Israel. Plus they can always get more. Unlike Gaza, there are many ways to smuggle stuff to Lebanon.
The demands of Hamas and Hezbollah for a ceasefire are mutually aligned though. Full withdrawal of the IDF from the Gaza strip and a permanent ceasefire backed by the USA.
Hamas has been willing to trade the hostages since the beginning, the whole goal of Oct 7 was to get leverage to get their people out of Israeli detention. (Next to drawing the world's attention back to Gaza and the West Bank) 3 of the 6 dead hostages retrieved a while ago were on the list to be traded in phase 1. They were still alive until the rescue operation which led to their deaths. (Still unclear what happened, died in cross fighting or executed)
The depressing fact is, the longer the war goes on, the more chances the rest of the hostages will die. (As well as more deaths in Israeli detention centers Forty-four Palestinian detainees have died in Israeli military custody from Oct. 7 through July 2, according to an Israeli military written response to a question from Physicians for Human Rights Israel) As of Sept 1 there are still 97 hostages in Gaza, yet nobody knows how many are still alive.
The BBC made a list of the remaining hostages
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67053011
B'Tselem keeps track of Palestinian 'hostages' in administrative detention (No charges, no access to legal representation, secret 'evidence')
https://www.btselem.org/administrative_detention/statistics
The brutal fact is, Netanyahu needs to keep the war(s) going to stay in power. His corruption trial is waiting for him as soon as the war ends, as well as investigations in his role in Oct 7 and of course all the war crimes since. Perpetual war is his only safety.
There is no end goal here. Netanyahu can't stay PM forever, I think...
He's on his 7th term already if Wikipedia is correct
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Israel
Effectively 3 terms, 1996-1999, 2009-2021 (4 terms with early re-elections), 2022-now
16 years, 359 days as of 21 September 2024 (first term: 3 years and 18 days; second term: 12 years and 74 days; third term: 1 year, 267 days)
And he's leading again in the polls...
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-08-19/ty-article/.premium/despite-gaza-netanyahu-is-topping-the-polls-in-israel-again-he-should-thank-iran/00000191-6b46-d87e-a9b3-6f7f795d0000
The only way out of this is sanctions, stop arming Israel, end the political cover. It's the USA that keeps the wars going by giving Netanyahu everything he wants. If not, Netanyahu will lead Israel to its destruction while dragging the whole region down into more deaths and destruction.
