TallSilhouette said:
Perhaps the polls are fairly accurate or at least a good indicator but I'm not so sure. Polling is practically the only metric I'm aware of where things are close. When you look at almost anything else like fundraising, voter registration, enthusiasm, campaign infrastructure, smaller election results, etc, I can't help but think conventional polling isn't capturing the real state of the electorate again. I could absolutely be wrong, but my gut says Harris and the Democrats outperform projections again. I'd personally give her 2:1 odds of winning and I certainly hope we hold on to the Senate and take back the House, too. |
The polls have limitations, and the polls are just a snapshot. Even if they were perfect, they would tell you what would happen if the election were held today, not what will happen in November. I think they are the best tool we have available.
The polling actually agrees with your intuition. As of now, Fivethirtyeight's model has Harris with a 64% chance. Basically the same as 2:1. It's just that 1/3 is way too big of a chance for my liking.