The 2024 election will be substantially impacted by the Polish-American swing state vote (w/ suppl. impact by Ukrainians and Lithuanians) and how they will react to @JDVance once he goes through the VP debate.
— Oleg Kostour 🇺🇦🇨🇦🇺🇸 (@OlegKostour) August 10, 2024
Vance was not well-known figure (he was not in the Republican… pic.twitter.com/DXIaMT9frO
Vance was not well-known figure (he was not in the Republican Primary), and his positions on the war in Eastern Europe may not have been well understood by the voters in MI, WI, PA.
I speculate that the VP debate between Gov Tim Walz and JD Vance will be a turning point, if Walz takes the opportunity to surface the contrast between their positions.
If we don't get a robust debate on foreign policy between the presidential candidates over the next few months, the VP debate may have more impact, as it will be a strong signal on what each candidate's approach will be.
Note how small the margin was for Trump's victory in 2016, and his loss in 2020. And compare that to the population size of these diaspora populations.
Pennsylvania:
⬛ 758k Poles
▪️ 100-150k Ukrainians
▪️ 50-100k Lithuanians
✔️Trump 2016 margin: +44,292
✖️Trump 2020 margin: -80,555
Wisconsin:
⬛ 481k Poles
▪️ 10k-50k Lithuanians
▪️ <10k Ukrainians
✔️Trump 2016 margin: +22,748
✖️Trump 2020 margin: -20,682
Michigan:
⬛ 784k Poles
▪️ 50k-100k Ukrainians
▪️ 10k-50k Lithuanians
✔️Trump 2016 margin: +10,704
✖️Trump 2020 margin: -154,188
