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sc94597 on 02 September 2024
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LegitHyperbole said:
sc94597 said:

Where does your certainty come from here? Not saying it isn't a possibility, but it isn't clear why you're certain.

At the end of the day people buy new platforms for the games. If the Switch 2 has the games people want to buy and no other platform does, they have no choice but to buy one if they want to play those games. Nintendo is positioned a lot better when it comes to having exclusive system sellers than other platforms, and they are much less likely to maintain support for the original Switch beyond a few years (unlike what we've seen with the 8th -> 9th gen transition for the other consoles.) 

My prior is that there likely will be a decline compared to Switch, given that it is hard to maintain #1/#2 lifetime platform sales, but I am nowhere near certain it will be "quite a large margin" or "3DS level." 

There is a lot more uncertainty than certainty when it comes to generational transitions. 

My opinion. It's a feeling I get way down in my center, I just know it. There's not much Nintendo can do to market this thing to propose people who have a switch to fork over for another platform. If they don't do BC, they're screwed cause of peoples digital libraries/online etc. If they do BC, why upgrade. They're screwed no matter what angle they come across on this and the best they can hope for is a 3DS situation. Just my prediction, like based off of what I can see what has come before. Nintendo tend to have a track record of screwing up the next system after a successful system too. There's that. 

How are the nearly hundred million people who bought a Switch to play Pokemon, Super Smash Bros, Animal Crossing, The Legend of Zelda, Mario and Mario Kart going to play the new games in those series if they don't buy the new platform? 

We're talking about games series that sell individual titles in the 20-60 millions. 

Nintendo is almost certainly going to have backwards-compatibility for Switch titles, but people still are going to be interested in buying the newest games in those series and Nintendo isn't going to release them on Switch outside of the first-year BOTW/TP like situations. That wouldn't make sense at all.