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The real reason for the current ceasefire push. The US doesn't want to be drawn into a war with Iran.
Senior US official says only Iranian retaliation would likely derail ceasefire deal now
An embargo has just lifted on a senior White House official briefing to reporters, and I can now tell you a call has just wrapped up with the leaders of the United States, Qatar and Egypt. And what they discussed is what the senior administration official is calling the momentum to get this done.
When asked by one reporter what makes this different from every time before, he said that in every single instance, what makes this different is that where there were gaps, there is now a final “bridging proposal” on every outstanding issue and proposal.
In other words, there’s no longer any [major] obstacles to seeing this over the finish line. They’ve got a solution, they’re now just working out the final details.
So the bottom line, he says, is that there’s a strong desire by every one of participants [for] “a new spirit to drive this to conclusion” and the only obstacles that remains could be some sort of retaliatory attack by Iran; something that administration officials are working on over the weekend, to make sure there is no retaliation over the weekend.
He says the US is sending a message to Iran right now: “Do not do such a thing. Don’t. We mean it. The consequences for such a thing would be cataclysmic”. And if Iran should do something like that, they’re prepared for all contingencies.
Why a ceasefire deal will probably be reached next week
Ten months of genocide has dealt Gaza a huge blow on the humanitarian side; more than 100,000 casualties, many more than 40,00 deaths – basically there are no more targets in Gaza to bomb, as far as Israel is concerned.
So really [for Israel], it is time for them to wind down the war – the war has lost its logic, it’s the end of the line as the Americans have told the Israelis these past few days, there’s just no point in continuing with more of the same when it means zero strategic logic and only humanitarian destruction.
The second thing that changed is that there is now a regional threat of a widening war that is coming to weigh in on the negotiations and this round of talks, where the Iranians and Hezbollah are threatening to retaliate against Israel and the United States has kind of been drawn into it.
Third, the Israeli public are really getting tired of Netanyahu’s lies. While they agree with him on a number of things, they don’t trust him. And clearly the Israeli military establishment has already came out against him saying he’s just maintaining the war for his own personal ends and he’s the one who’s actually delaying a deal.
[And] two months out from an election, the United States doesn’t want to be drawn into a wider war. Biden has had his day in supporting Israel, I’m sure he’s a very proud Zionist now for aiding and abetting genocide, and now he wants to play the peacemaker.
So these are the reasons why there is more of a drive towards a deal.
Israel still wants to obstruct agreement on ceasefire, Hamas official says
A Hamas leadership source has spoken to Al Jazeera on the current round of talks held in Doha, Qatar:
Here are his translated comments:
- The occupation continues to evade and obstruct and insists on adding new conditions to obstruct the agreement.
- The new US proposal responds to the conditions of the occupation and aligns with them.
- We reaffirm our commitment to what we agreed to on July 2, based on the Biden declaration and the UN Security Council resolution.
- We call on the mediators to pressure the occupation and oblige it to implement what was agreed upon.
- Any agreement must ensure the cessation of aggression against our people and the withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
- Any agreement must also include providing urgent relief and a genuine prisoner exchange deal.
