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Ryuu96 on 07 August 2024
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shavenferret said:
Ryuu96 said:

It's pretty easy to be quick to dismiss the Ukrainian offensive operation in Russia's Kursk as "just a PR stunt" and criticize it, given the dire situation at Porkovsk and Toretsk.

That, indeed, might be a bad idea.

At the same time, it's very hard to ignore the fact that...

- given Russia's strategic superiority in resources and manpower and given Russia's readiness to tolerate inadequate losses, putting their flags over lifeless ruins of Ukrainian towns at any cost,

- given Ukraine's own chronic problems and constraints in its ability to fight a full-scale total war in the 21st-century environment against one of the world's largest militaries,

- given how chronically slow Western defense aid is and how reluctant the West is in making decisions and dropping its "escalation management" limitations,

...Ukraine may need to focus even more on asymmetrical tactics and out-of-the-box solutions that hit Russia hard where it doesn't expect.

Just fighting through walls of endless Russian frontal attacks slowly closing in under the rain of gliding bombs for months and years is a bleak perspective.

Especially in a situation where the aggressor spends over two years enjoying perfectly safe havens in its territory to concentrate its forces, unfold its logistics, etc., for bombing campaigns and new offensive operations -- because heaven forbid Ukraine strikes back too hard.

We'll see.

And no, "just surrender then" is not an option.

I just hope that they don't push too far and get too eager, because the counterattack could be very bad.  Still if they are here to stay in the game then so be it, just please do it wisely, Ukraine.  Hope they don't repeat the costly losses that the offensives last year had.    The point that you had about the assymetrical tactics was prescient, because Russia is all about doing everything by the book.  They can't break free of that and do something unexpected to save their lives.  

I still believe that if Ukraine had no restrictions, last years offensives wouldn't have been a direct charge straight into minefields and artillery, they would have went into Russia, established a position and looped back round into Ukraine to hit Russians from behind. I don't know what Ukraine's objectives are here yet, whether it's a limited attack and run or not, I also don't believe they'll ever do what I said above but I still believe it's the best tactic because otherwise they're back to charging headfirst into minefields and artillery, that's why their losses were so high last year.

I fully believe if America was in the same scenario, they would invade and take control of Belgorod and then loop back around into Luhansk.

Don't know what the purpose of this is though, I know it ain't the above though, it could just be Ukraine trying to divert Russian forces elsewhere, it could be Ukraine trying to establish a permanent position, it could just be a quick run in and run out and dealing as much damage as possible, it could be to show how pathetic Russia's redlines are, it could be to put a stop to the stupid line that the contact lines should be frozen, cause then they would be frozen with Ukraine holding Russian territory, etc. Nobody knows.

Just wish they could park a Patriot on the border and blow up any aircraft but America/Germany already got mad at Ukraine for doing that.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 07 August 2024