2024 US Presidential Election

[Shtinamin_]

haxxiy said:

Shtinamin_ said:

(snip)

That's not how any of this works. The deadlines to submit names for the general election ballots are in August and September depending on the state. You are mistaking one thing for another which would have been quite clear to anyone bothering to do some research and look at the legislation. Let alone think with an ounce of common sense since the DNC didn't even happen yet.

Maybe that's something worthy of consideration beforehand the next time you want to write electoral fanfiction...

This site below gives the rules on how a party, Democrat, Republican, or third-party would go about changing nominees before the convention, after the convention, and after the election. And has the cut-off dates for every state and D.C.

https://ballotpedia.org/State_laws_and_party_rules_on_replacing_a_presidential_nominee,_2024

This site below gives a brief detail that the Democrat Party will hold a pre-convention on Aug 1 2024 so that they can get Kamala and her VP or whoever on the ballots of states that cut-off before the DNC on Aug 19, 2024.

https://lailluminator.com/2024/07/24/democrat-virtual-vote/

Here's a second witness.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/dncs-virtual-roll-call-work-changed-biden-left/story?id=112199407

CosmicSex said:

Shtinamin_ said:

I have a set of predictions* for the 2024 US Presidential Election.

How does NJ go directly from Solid Democrat (+15) in 2020 to Republican?

CA and HI go from +30 to tilt and lean Democrat?  Thats not a thing lol.  They could both loose  half of their democratic support and still be Solid Democrat.

WA and OR go from +26 and +20 Democrat to lean Democrat?

NY was +23 Democrat in 2020.  Its not gonna turn into lean Democrat.

Georgia isn't going to go from Tossup in 2020 (Biden+<1) to Solid Republican (Trump +15)

I understand that this is your prediction or rather your desires, but I feel like the reasons you gave are either untrue, misunderstood and a little deceptive. No one like JD Vance... Trump was already defeated in 2020.  A third of Democrats are not going to switch to the GOP just cause.  That what this result would require.

Thanks for the questions :)

Well if we take a look at the polling so far with Trump vs Harris

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris

Trump leads Harris in both the one-on-one and the 5-way (this is important since the third-party parties are what gave Trump the win in 2016 against Clinton, and one reason why Trump lost in 2020 is due to a lack of third-party parties.)

Right now, it looks as though we are in a "honeymoon" season for VP Kamala Harris as the nominee. (Given that she is getting donations, and got the delegate necessary, it looks to be that she will be at the top of the ticket, but I still think the democrat delegates at the DNC will choose someone else). I think once the debates happen, and if Trump wants to debate then it'll happen soon, people will lose the honeymoon energy.

We also know that the 2016 and 2020 election polling had left-leaning biases. I am not adding in 2022 and 2018 given that they weren't presidential years and republicans don't go and vote as much during the inbetween years. The projected bias between the two election years is 4.18 point underestimating Trump. Giving Trump an extra +4.18 points on election day. 
2020 had a polling overestimate of Biden. The polls showed Biden +9.01 with the result actually being Biden +4.5 (hence the +4.51 Trump underestimation projection above). 2016 has Clinton overestimated by +3.85.

I will look at CNN's latest poll giving Trump +3. If that stays true (probably won't) then Trump will be at +7.18. This will be a national shift of +11.68 points to a republican top ticket. 2020 was Democrat +4.5 → Republican +7.18 giving us a +11.68 shift.

Wall Street Journal and Forbes/Harris X both give Trump +2, giving Trump with the average bias included at +6.18.

The average between 538 and RCP is +2.45 Trump (538: +3.2 Trump & RCP: +1.7 Trump). Add the average bias and we get a +6.63 Trump.

NJ has shown polls (yes it was against Biden, but I don't see any difference between Biden's polls and Harris' polls) change from Biden +6 in March 29 2024 to Trump +1 in Jun 27 2024. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-jersey/
So yes, it will be very, very close in NJ.

CA has an average of +19 Biden on 538, and +21.7 in RCP. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/california/trump-vs-biden
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/california/ This is against Biden v Trump but as I said before I don't see a difference between Biden and Harris's campaign. And I know a rather surprising number of people who are voting for Trump in LA county, some people I didn't expect really. CA is home to a large asian and hispanic population which has fallen away from both the democrats and Harris.

HI had +8 Biden in the 5 way on 538 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/hawaii/. I can see the natives having resentment to the Harris campaign, due to how they were treated by the Biden administration.

NY had on average +7.5 Biden on RCP https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/new-york/trump-vs-biden, and +9 Biden on 538 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-york/.

I will say that GA in the Atlanta suburbs Harris will probably fair better than Biden.

Harris has lost appeal from women, latinos, asians, men, 18-34, and 34-49 year olds as well too. The demographics are near the bottom of the page. https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3901

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I also recall someone saying that the favorability or job approval rating does not matter. 

Here are the results showing the correlation from job approval to national vote share (popular vote) for President's going for re-election.
Trump 2020 Approval: 45.8% → Vote Share 46.8%
Obama 2012 Approval: 50.0% → Vote Share 51.1%
Bush 2004 Approval 49.5% → Vote Share 50.7%
*Clinton 1996 Approval 54% → Vote Share 49.2%.

*due to an increase of voting for third-party parties

I predict, at least at this moment VP Kamala Harris will receive about 39.7% of the National Vote Share

Last edited by Shtinamin_ - on 27 July 2024