| Shtinamin_ said: I have a set of predictions* for the 2024 US Presidential Election.
Deep Color: Safe +15 & Up |
Your map is absurd.
California is a safe blue state, Biden won it in 2020 by 30 points.
Minnesota hasn't voted red in decades.
This is currently how the election will probably play out. Some states like Virginia could go red, Georgia could go blue.
Wisconsin and Michigan are going to be close, but I expect they'll be blue. They've been voting pretty blue the past few elections.
| Shtinamin_ said: 1. Vice President Kamala Harris won't be the Democrat nominee. But if she somehow is, she will elect the Arizona Senator Mark Kelly. 2. Looking at polls right now, the following states will flip red: AZ, GA, ME at large, MI, MN, NE 2, NJ, NH, NM, NV, PA, VA, WI |
It's pretty safe to say she'll be the nominee at this point.
Most of these polls are pretty meaningless at this point. It's probably how Biden would have performed in a bad week. Not Kamala Harris, and frankly I doubt Biden would even perform that bad on most weeks.
| Shtinamin_ said: 4. MI, PA, WI will flip red due to the appeal from the OH senator J. D. Vance. 5. PA will flip red due to the attempted shooting of President Donald J. Trump |
4. What appeal does he have?
5. Doubtful.
| Shtinamin_ said: 6. GA will flip because Vice President Kamala Harris or whoever is chosen as the nominee at the DNC 8/19/24 might not be able to get on the ballot. The same goes for AZ, CA, MD, NC, OH, SD, WV (though the democratic party's presidential nominee and VP nominee will most likely be able to get on the ballots). |
From what I understand, Georgia doesn't work this way. From what I've read in Georgia, you're not even really voting for a candidate, you're voting for party electors, who would just vote for Kamala or whoever they want. In other words, even if Joe Biden is on the ballot, all of those votes would go towards whoever happened to be the Democratic nominee.
Democrats haven't assigned a nominee, so I'm not sure why you think it makes sense that states would have deadlines so early. If the deadline has already passed, then Democrats would have to nominate someone sooner, and they'd hold their convention months ago instead.
| Shtinamin_ said: 7. If Vice President Kamala Harris is the presidential nominee, she will be running at a 37.8% approval for a -13.6 (which is 4 points better than President Joe R. Biden) against President Donald J. Trump at 42.3% approval for -10.7 (it was a -12 before President Joe R. Biden dropped out). Approval ratings on average match what they will receive in the election. 8. Betting odds set Trump at around 65.36% - 66.67%, with Harris at 38.17% - 41.67% 9. Third-party candidates like RFK Jr., Chase Oliver, Jill Stein, and Cornel West all take voters away from VP Harris. Randall Terry takes voters away from Trump. I can see third parties getting nearly 10% of the total vote (RFK Jr. ~6%, Oliver ~2%, Stein ~>1%, West ~>1%, Terry ~>1%). *All predictions may change given any new light of information. If there are any questions, I'll be happy to answer though please forgive if it takes a while. Also, does anyone know what happened to the "Trump v Biden Political Campaign, Policies, etc" thread? I don't know if my answer to Pemalite was ever put up. |
I would argue these approval numbers mean very little. Everyone knows who Donald Trump is, plenty of people don't know who Kamala Harris is.
Trump vs Biden thread was closed, since Biden has been dropped.
