2024 US Presidential Election

[Shtinamin_]

I have a set of predictions* for the 2024 US Presidential Election.

Deep Color: Safe +15 & Up
Color: +6 to +14
Light Color: +2 to +5
Murky Color: 0 to +1.

1. Vice President Kamala Harris won't be the Democrat nominee. But if she somehow is, she will elect the Arizona Senator Mark Kelly. 

2. Looking at polls right now, the following states will flip red: AZ, GA, ME at large, MI, MN, NE 2, NJ, NH, NM, NV, PA, VA, WI

3. NM has large hispanic/latino population which has been moving to the right, overcoming the usual white community that votes to the left.

4. MI, PA, WI will flip red due to the appeal from the OH senator J. D. Vance.

5. PA will flip red due to the attempted shooting of President Donald J. Trump

6. GA will flip because Vice President Kamala Harris or whoever is chosen as the nominee at the DNC 8/19/24 might not be able to get on the ballot. The same goes for AZ, CA, MD, NC, OH, SD, WV (though the democratic party's presidential nominee and VP nominee will most likely be able to get on the ballots).
CA and SD will find a way. OH will push their date back, but that is only approved after the new proposed deadline. 

GA deadline was July 9th before President Joe R. Biden dropped out, VP Harris wasn't even a thought to the general public at the time.
AZ: 8/9/24
CA: 8/14/24
MD: 8/16/24
NC: 8/2/24
OH: 8/7/24
SD: 8/13/24
WV: 8/19/24
The DNC says they will have a pre-nomination by 8/1/24.

7. If Vice President Kamala Harris is the presidential nominee, she will be running at a 37.8% approval for a -13.6 (which is 4 points better than President Joe R. Biden) against President Donald J. Trump at 42.3% approval for -10.7 (it was a -12 before President Joe R. Biden dropped out). Approval ratings on average match what they will receive in the election.

8. Betting odds set Trump at around 65.36% - 66.67%, with Harris at 38.17% - 41.67%

9. Third-party candidates like RFK Jr., Chase Oliver, Jill Stein, and Cornel West all take voters away from VP Harris. Randall Terry takes voters away from Trump. I can see third parties getting nearly 10% of the total vote (RFK Jr. ~6%, Oliver ~2%, Stein ~>1%, West ~>1%, Terry ~>1%).

*All predictions may change given any new light of information.

If there are any questions, I'll be happy to answer though please forgive if it takes a while. Also, does anyone know what happened to the "Trump v Biden Political Campaign, Policies, etc" thread? I don't know if my answer to Pemalite was ever put up.