Six months ago I wrote a viral thread, arguing that NATO has 2-3 years to prepare for Russia challenging NATO Art 5.
— Fabian Hoffmann (@FRHoffmann1) July 16, 2024
I wanted to revisit the topic for a while. In light of @JDVance1's pick as VP, today seems as good as any.
TLDR: panic should set in. 1/15 pic.twitter.com/wrgOxGVOZV
How might 🇷🇺 achieve this?
— Fabian Hoffmann (@FRHoffmann1) July 16, 2024
By initiating small-scale incursions into Eastern Europe, followed by rapid escalation against Western European states to increase the costs of resistance, and coerce them into seeking a settlement.
If Western Europeans falter, NATO is finished.
3/15
I argued that deterring Russia would require both capability AND demonstrating resolve.
— Fabian Hoffmann (@FRHoffmann1) July 16, 2024
We must make it clear to Russia that we not only have the means to respond, but that we are also absolutely willing to do so, even at great personal cost and risk.
5/15
How do things stand now?
— Fabian Hoffmann (@FRHoffmann1) July 16, 2024
With Vance as the VP pick and considering his previous comments on Ukraine and Europe (along with those of Trump), it's clear that a US withdrawal from NATO—whether formal or through political statements—is fully on the table.
7/15
European states can no longer rely on the availability of US military assets when planning for a potential Russian attack.
— Fabian Hoffmann (@FRHoffmann1) July 16, 2024
This is devastating because the USA not only offers the most overall capabilities but also provides critical capabilities specific to this scenario.
9/15
Losing access to US military capabilities will not only undermine our capacity to defend ourselves, it will further push the perceived balance of resolve in Russia's favor.
— Fabian Hoffmann (@FRHoffmann1) July 16, 2024
Needless to say, that's very dangerous, as this will ultimately determine weather Putin attacks.
11/15
Overall, things have taken a turn for the worse since January.
— Fabian Hoffmann (@FRHoffmann1) July 16, 2024
While a Trump Administration might not change the previously given 2-3 year timeframe, it significantly increases the likelihood that Putin will challenge Art. 5 in the years ahead.
13/15
Build up your militaries. We don't need war-capable European armies in 2030; we needed them yesterday.
— Fabian Hoffmann (@FRHoffmann1) July 16, 2024
Most importantly, our actions in the coming months and years will determine not only whether the war in Ukraine escalates but also whether we are next.
Act accordingly. 15/15
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