Why an Israel-Hezbollah war would be far more dangerous today than the last time around
“We can plunge Lebanon completely into the dark and take apart Hezbollah’s power in days,” former Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz declared Tuesday at a conference at Reichman University in Herzliya, Israel.
It was just the latest threat from a prominent Israeli public figure against Lebanon and Hezbollah as tensions flare.
It won’t be difficult for Israel to plunge Lebanon into darkness. The country’s power grid, already crippled by decades of mismanagement and the country’s economic collapse, barely functions as it is. A few well-aimed airstrikes will easily finish it off.
Taking apart Hezbollah’s military power in days, however, is a far taller task. Since its inconclusive 2006 war with the Lebanese militant group, Israel has been planning for a re-match. Hezbollah too has long been preparing for war.
Its arsenal includes, according to Israeli estimates, at least 150,000 missiles and rockets. Israel estimates the group has already fired 5,000 since October, which means, as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech last week, much of its arsenal remains intact.
CNN has reported that Israeli officials have been surprised by the sophistication of the militant group’s attacks.
These include systematic pinpoint strikes on Israel’s array of surveillance outposts along the border, shooting down high-flying top-of-the-line Israeli drones, and hits on Israel’s Iron Dome batteries and anti-drone defenses. Perhaps the biggest surprise for Israel, however, was the nine minutes of drone footage Hezbollah published online of highly sensitive civilian and military infrastructure in and around the northern city of Haifa.
Highly trained and disciplined
In addition to its weaponry, Hezbollah can probably field between 40,000 and 50,000 fighters – Nasrallah recently said more than 100,000. Many of these gained combat experience fighting alongside regime forces in the Syria civil war.
As a fighting force, Hezbollah is highly trained and disciplined, unlike many other guerrilla groups. During the 2006 war, in the experience of this correspondent, it was rare to encounter Hezbollah fighters. One day we came upon several of them in the ruins of a southern Lebanese village. They were polite but firm, devoid of boastful bluster and swagger, insisting we leave immediately for our own safety. They wouldn’t take no for an answer.
Unlike Gaza, Lebanon is not hemmed in by hostile neighbors. It has strategic depth, with friendly regimes in Syria and Iraq, allowing direct access to Iran.
Over the years Israel has regularly struck targets in Syria it believed were involved in trans-shipment of weapons to Hezbollah, but all indications are those strikes have been only partially successful.
In the event of war, full-scale war, both sides will be able to inflict significant pain on the other.
‘Fire and blood’: The chilling reality facing Israel in a war with Hezbollah
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/skc0dbmia
Over 100 senior military and government officials participated in a report by Reichman University’s Institute for Counter-Terrorism which details how unprepared the Israeli home front is for an all-out war with Hezbollah
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Lebanon would also be destroyed but CNN doesn't care about that.
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