Nintendo Direct, June 18, 2024, 10 AM EST

[h2ohno]

Soundwave said:

h2ohno said:

Prime 4's sales potential likely depends on what else is in the Switch 2 launch lineup. If there's a new 3D Mario or Mario Kart 9 at launch, Prime 4 will struggle to sell more than 5 million. If it has a month or so as the biggest launch game like how BOTW had a while before MK8Deluxe came out, 10 million is doable.

Echoes of Wisdom will likely be the lowest-selling Zelda on Switch by virtue of coming out so late in the lifecycle and being slightly more niche than other Zeldas.

Asking Prime 5 to sell more than 5 million was always a huge ask, no Metroid game has come close to 5 million, if Prime 4 can get there that would be a huge success for the IP. 

Zelda: EoW I'll put at maybe 4 million LTD.

If Prime 4 is THE big Nintendo game at launch, then it will sell more because people won't have other options. BOTW would not have sold as well as it did if Mario Kart was a launch game.  The more people who buy Prime 4 at launch, the more positive word of mouth will spread, and the more it will continue to sell in the months and even years going forward from that initial momentum.  Conversely, if Prime 4 has to compete with something like a Mario Kart or 3D Mario, it could lose 2/3 of its sales potential right out of the gate and never get the momentum needed to come anywhere near 10 million.