Following up, I think this chart from Install Base makes my point clearly enough. Throughout most of its history, Nintendo has maintained a steady baseline of ~20 million consoles shipped per year, with the only exceptions being the Wii+DS era, where sales peaked over 50m in 2008 and the Wii U+3DS era, where sales collapsed to 10 mil a year. Even the Switch, for as successful as it has been, has basically only managed to restore Nintendo's combined sales to about where it was during the late 90s and early 2000s, which tbf is a very strong baseline for a single system selling at a much higher average price. Given this clear trend, its only realistic to expect Nintendo to continue to average about 20m a year with both the Switch and Switch 2 going forwards, maybe higher if Nintendo can tap into the same mass market trends that contributed to the Switch's peak 2020 sales.
