I agree that a $399 price seems impossible without Nintendo taking a bit of a loss; last time that happened was the Gamecube, I believe, which sold for a ~$9 loss at launch at $199 (with no losses recorded in its reports). But there would be a bigger-picture advantage here.
First, look at successful systems that incurred a small loss at launch: The PS4 was selling for, what, a ~$40 loss when it launched? By the second year, it was profitable already. Sony stated that the purchase of one game (1st party) put them in the black when buying the system at launch. Now, think about the amount of 1st party software Nintendo would be able to sell for Switch 2 with a strong lineup.
Second, like Switch, Nintendo is probably aiming for no price drop for most of the generation and the system staying strong at $399 would benefit that image. I don't see Switch meeting Nintendo's forecast this year without some kind of price reduction so a $399 price for Switch 2 would separate the new system nicely from a $299 Switch OLED.
Still, it would not surprise me if the price of Switch 2 did end up being $429 - $449 but who knows; maybe all of those investor meetings that Nintendo had were to explain all of this to them in that an expected loss would become beneficial in the long run for the company.
