Below I make an early quaterly assumption to reach the goal of 13.5m in FY25. If we presume that Nintendo can really ship 13.5m in FY25 it will be an exact 14.01% decline from FY24. When we apply that 1:1 to each quarter we would reach the following:
1. Shipping of 13.5m in FY25 with 14.01% decline from FY24, evenly by quarter:
Q1: 3.36
Q2: 2.53
Q3: 5.93
Q4: 1.68
However, we can't apply it 1:1 each quarter as we had Zelda: Tears of the Kindom in Q1 of FY24. Therefore, and taking into consideration the most recent numbers we have from Japan and Europe for April so far, the decline for Q1 of FY25 must be much higher than 14.01%. We also know that Nintendo overshipped probably more than 500'000 units in Q3 of FY24. I don't think Nintendo will overship by that much this coming holidays. Therefore, the decline for Q3 of FY25 probably is higher than 14.01% as well. To still reach the 13.5m, it means that Q2 and Q4 of FY25 must be up YoY. Especially, Q4 should be significantly up YoY because, as mentioned before, I suppose there will be much less overshipping in Q3 and Pokémon Z-A will release during this quarter which will bump the numbers by quite a bit. On the other hand, Switch 2 will probably be revealed in Q4 which in turn will have a negative effect on sales. Considering all that but keeping the 13.5m for FY25, I make the following quaterly assumptions (with the help of complicated personal calculations to come to these specific numbers):
2. Shipping of 13.5m in FY25 with 14.01% decline from FY24 with more realistic distribution over the quarters:
Q1: 2.54 (-35.04%, Zelda: TotK effect and sales projection from most recent sales numbers from Japan and Europe for April)
Q2: 3.07 (+4.78%, I expect price cuts or bundles with a free game, starting during Q2, maybe the release of a new Switch SKU-model)
Q3: 5.53 (-19.86%, I think Nintendo will avoid overshipping too much like they did in Q3 of FY24, at the same time I expect a somewhat big title but nothing of the magnitude of Super Mario Bros. Wonder, maybe a new Donkey Kong game and/or a Pokémon remake or spin-off)
Q4: 2.36 (+20.41%, more base shipping than in Q4 of FY24 due to less overshipping in Q3 [see line above], release of Pokémon Z-A but reveal of Switch 2)
