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shavenferret on 11 May 2024
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Tico said:

Sorry for my possible bad grammar. My summary:


Those who report on the situation in Ukraine, if they are honest, only tell what they already know in Moscow. They don't tell anything else because they know that everything they tell is tracked and ends up reaching Moscow.


People like us, the only thing we can do is see who is honest and who is not, to read only the honest ones. Therefore, what we can know is quite limited. The economic, military and political cost of the war is unaffordable for the Russian government. We have to ensure that Ukraine receives what is necessary to continue putting up with the Russians. In the end the Russian government will fall.


Here are several possible scenarios:


-That the majority of the Russian population believes that Russia is the third Rome, but the West has prevented them from fulfilling their destiny, is an unbearable humiliation and therefore they have to attack Ukraine to begin to undo the disaster. In other words: they believe the same nonsense that Putin believes in. If this is the case, then when Putin's government falls, another one will emerge. Therefore, it is in our interest that by then Russia's economic, military and demographic potential is exhausted so that they do not bother us again. And the best way to achieve this is to continue giving weapons to Ukraine. And if it gets to the point where Ukraine can no longer, we will have to intervene.


-That the majority of the Russian population does not believe in this idiocy, but the Russian elites do believe in it. In practice it is the same scenario as the previous one and the solution is the same.


-That neither the population nor the Russian elites believe in this idiocy. In practice it is the same scenario as the previous one and the solution is the same. This requires an explanation:


In the Stalin era, Russian rulers were concerned more than anything with surviving. When Stalin falls, they start worrying about making things work. Little by little they see that communism does not work and that the solution is a more liberal system. When they are in the majority they place Gorbachev. Then the KGB together with Yeltsin begin a massive sabotage campaign against the Russian government. Finally, the USSR disintegrates and Russia appears as a nation. But the conflict between Yeltsin and the KGB against the Russian government continues. The conflict ends when Russian tanks shoot in and destroy the Russian government. Since then the Russian president has powers that are not controlled by parliament. And at the same time, the KGB (now called FSB) cannot be controlled by the president or anyone else. In other words: it is the FSB that really governs Russia since then. Putin is president because he left the FSB and has the FSB behind him. When Putin falls, the FSB will put in another of their own. That's why it doesn't matter what the Russian people think. And it doesn't even matter what the Russian elites think.


That is why the solution is to give weapons to Ukraine to contain the Russians until the Russians are no longer a threat. And if Russia melts Ukraine, then we will have to intervene.

I think that this war will be the last hurrah of Putin. When you add up factors like his health with him being 71 years old and showing signs of Parkinsons disease, he wont be able to hopd office long.  Add to the fact that he is upsetting the Russian public greatly with this war. He would be a prime target for assassination or deposition.