Biden’s weapons pause will have no impact on Israel’s Rafah operations
Elijah Magnier, a military and political analyst, says Biden’s move to restrict some weapons to Israel will not change PM Netanyahu’s strategy in Rafah.
“This is not going to change any of Netanyahu’s plans to occupy Rafah,” Magnier told Al Jazeera. “On the contrary, it will give him enough time to spend more time in Rafah and go very slowly to make sure that this war is going to last as long as possible.”
Magnier added that the US weapons pause is inconsequential because it applies only to “intelligent bombs, not dumb bombs, which Israel has plenty of and has been using for the past seven months”.
Elijah Magnier adds that Israel’s military is facing a series of challenges as it moves deeper into Rafah.
It needs to:
- amass a large number of troops in Rafah without angering the Egyptians;
- adapt troops to new terrain that is distinct from central and northern Gaza;
- locate tunnels from which Hamas fighters can launch attacks;
- relocate hundreds of thousands of already displaced Palestinians from potential combat areas while the world watches.
Generally, Israel’s policy is to “destroy everything before moving the troops … but because all the eyes of the world are fixed on what Netanyahu is going to do in Rafah and because of the very large number of internally displaced refugees, he cannot start carpet bombing,” Magnier added.
In addition, [Netanyahu] knows troops will face “stiff resistance” and will need time to “get accustomed to the area” and identify threats.
Who are Israel’s main weapons suppliers and who has halted exports?
The US has suspended a shipment of weapons to Israel, including heavy, bunker-busting bombs Israeli forces have used in their war on Gaza that has killed nearly 35,000 Palestinians in seven months.
The US is by far the largest arms supplier to its closest Middle East ally, followed by Germany and Italy. Canada and the Netherlands halted arms supplies to Israel over concerns they could be used in ways violating international humanitarian law. Between 2019 and 2023, Israel received 69 percent of its military aid from the US, about 30 percent from Germany and 1 percent from Italy.
The UK is not among Israel’s biggest suppliers. Last year, it granted export licences to sell at least 42 million pounds ($52.6m) of defence equipment to Israel.
On March 20, Canada’s government said it had stopped licensing arms exports to Israel since January 8, and the freeze would continue until Ottawa could ensure the weapons are used in accordance with humanitarian law. In February, the Dutch government halted shipments of parts for F-35 jets to Israel from warehouses in the Netherlands in February, after an appeals court ruling determined that there was a risk the parts were being used in connection with violations of humanitarian law.
Japan, Spain and Belgium also suspended arms sales in the wake of Israel’s brutal military offensive in Gaza.
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